by Dan Gilfeather

Created on: April 04, 2007   Last Updated: May 13, 2007

If the US was to attack Iran would any of us be surprised?

None of us should be under the illusion that a military strike would not be successful
After all, the military has access to technology both on land and in the air and a force
that far outweighs those of the Republic of Iran. It would be yet another re-run of the
2 week wonder wars of the recent past so loved by CNN.

However, as soon as the excitable crowd of Democratic loving Iranians (with American accents)
pull down the giant pictures of the Ayatollah for the crowd of western cameras and marines this
will be when the problems start; namely that America is just not any good at running empires
once the military campaigning has finished.

It's a bit like those people who when they first start seeing someone they get that initial giddy rush
of being in love but when it settles into routine they start to get board and their eyes start to wonder:
For Bush and Blair Iraq was that partner. The one with issues.

You can see the attraction for Bush to come up with a reason to invade Iran. Just like Iraq, Iran was a nation
during the cold war period that America thought they had in their back pocket. Nationalist politicians were
assinated by CIA backed groups, a ruler dependent on the west was in power and much was given over in
military aid and incentives to keep the shah sweet. Trouble was, the excesses of western living so loved by
the shah was not popular with those that mattered, his subjects.

As seen in the past, monarchs who treat their subjects lightly and believe in a divine right to rule inevitably
end up oust by revolution, in this case one that may have been fundamentally Islamic by design but it still
carried the support of the people. After all, revolutions tend to fail when they don't carry a majority support.

28 years later the Ayatollah is still in power and Iran still does not look on too fondly on the 'great Satan'.
Yet unlike her neighbors who now play hosts to forces of freedom, Iran was and is a Democratic nation.
You may not like their government but they were voted in and have been on a regular basis. This may be
the crux of the problem for any plans to invade or even strike Tehran or elsewhere across the Iraqi border.
America and her allies would have alot of trouble justifying their actions.

Whilst the taliban ruled and Saddam dominated their respective countries, the mandate for military action
was relatively easier to obtain. Granted, not all countries were too keen but the argument that they were
not democracy's but repressive regimes allowed the UN to be swayed in giving the mandates for these invasions
Yet if the warplanes go in this time we can expect to see more resistance from not just other nations but
a likely rise in the number of people strapping bombs to their chests and going for a ride on a busy train or plane.

By all means if America thinks that they can cope with yet another invasion of a middle eastern country and
more importantly, that the voting citizens can put up with the possible consequences of this then by all means
start fueling the jets and arming the cruise missiles.

Just don't come crying looking for sympathy when it all goes pear shaped. That's something the rest of
us have long run out off.

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