by A.W. Berry

Created on: January 19, 2012   Last Updated: March 27, 2012

Americans are keeping their cars and light trucks longer than ever. The average age of vehicles on U.S. roads and in neighborhoods has increased to 10.8 years, according to automotive marketing research firm R.L. Polk & Co. This trend is also evident in a number of automotive statistics compiled by government agencies, independent research firms and market observers. The reason for the increased lifespan of cars and light trucks is correlated with economic climate and retail activity, however since automobiles have limited lifespans this pattern of longer vehicle retention will influence future sales and industry activity.

The research released by Polk indicates cars have a slightly longer average age of 11.1 years compared to light trucks that are .7 years younger or 10.4 years old. The total age of both cars and light trucks has increased 2.5 years since 1995 according to the firm. In its 2011 National Transportation Statistics book, The Bureau of Transportation states data from this firm is close to the actual number of registered vehicles on U.S. roads and is consequently reliable. An automotive publisher called the Detroit Bureau estimated the average age of cars in 2010 to be 9.9 years old, .7 years less than Polk's average of passenger cars and light trucks for the same year.

The average age of vehicles on U.S. roads is based on vehicle sales and population data, according to Polk. Moreover, between 2008 and 2011 total vehicles and light trucks on the road actually declined by 1.7 percent or 408,093. This means Americans were consuming less gas, driving fewer vehicles for a longer amount of time during that same time period. Automotive sales were also well below the 2006 level of 16.477 million, per the Department of Commerce and the Wall Street Journal. Thus, since the total number of cars and trucks declined along with sales during those years, the inference is that drivers are keeping their vehicles longer.

Several additional factors influence the age of U.S. vehicles including population growth, total sales, and scrappage rates. For example, the TCW Group Inc., claims the average annual scrappage rate of automobiles is between 14-15 million vehicles. If fewer cars are sold, while the scrappage rate remains the same it becomes apparent the remaining cars are collectively being driven longer. Still more variables that influence car sales are marketing, financing deals, and the supply of parts in the manufacturing process. The quality of vehicles, maintenance, and road conditions can also affect how long Americans drive their automobiles. However, arguably, and per the analysis of Edmunds Auto Observer, of substantial relevance is the economy, and a need to hold on to cars and trucks longer before purchasing newer ones.

Although the automotive sales trend is downward, automobiles do have limited life-spans and slower replacement rates can lead to bottlenecking of sales. In other words, and according to  MSNBC automotive reporter Phil Lebeau, in the future, sales of automobiles should rise significantly to replace a larger number of vehicles that have reached the upper limit of their lifespan. Americans cannot keep driving their cars forever, and at some point will have a heightened need to replace them. Moreover, unless the automobiles manufactured in the last 10-20 years were manufactured with a quality far superior and longer lasting than previous generations of vehicles, the replacement of those same cars and trucks either through used or new auto sales should rise and be compounded by a population growing by approximately 2.6 million people per year per U.S. Census data.

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