by Todd Daigneault

Created on: December 20, 2011   Last Updated: December 25, 2011

President Bashar Assad of Syria is facing an unprecedented uprising in Syria. In some ways, even more significant than during the 1982 Hama, Syria uprising, where at least several thousand civilians and nearly a thousand Syrian soldiers were killed. The uprising of the 'Arab Spring,' has swept through the Middle East like a tsunami of pure, intense fire. Where the Hama uprising was put down with brutal efficiency, the 21st century uprising in Syria is far more dangerous to the Assad regime, as it has spread to numerous cities in Syria.  It threatens to destroy the beleaguered Assad regime. The new Syrian president, employing the same brutal tactics as his father did a generation ago, has failed to squash the would-be revolutionaries. Even promised and implemented reforms by the Syrian president has failed to stop the uprising, as this new generation will stop at nothing but the direct ousting of the Syrian government.

With inspiration gleaned from the successful revolutions and NATO-aided overthrows in Libya, the 2011 uprising in Syria of the 'Arab Spring' rages on.  The face of the entire middle East is already going through radical and significant changes as a result of it. Offers of reform and other political changes have done nothing to stop this uprising, seemingly only inflaming it. With the Middle East in rapid flux from these uprisings, President Assad of Syria is facing the same fate as the other Arab leaders who have fallen during 2011. In his case, he is employing far more brutal tactics. A tipping point could come within the next few months, if Iran, Syria's strategic ally, pulls their support from Assad, to maintain a strategic alliance with Syria through its new government. With potential military moves by Turkey, NATO and Israel, the Syrian ruler may face overwhelming odds in dealing with not only a rebellion from his own people, but concerted and determined military pressure from foreign military intervention.

With strategic military infrastructure decimated in any potential Western and/or Israeli attacks, the rebels may be more emboldened to move towards Damascus in a final blow to a greatly potentially weakened Assad.  Much like the fate that befell the Libyan dictator.   With the overthrow of Colonel Gaddafi  by NATO and the assorted rebel movements still fresh in the mindsets of the continuing Arab Spring, such strikes could bring the current Syrian government to its knees. However, the Syrian ruler will likely inflame the entire Middle East in a regional war if attacked, engulfing the uprising in a sea of flames. Unless Iran turns on him in a significant fashion, it is likely that the Syrian uprising of 2012 could ignite a far more dangerous regional war, dragging in the neighboring countries, with tragic consequences for the world. The long threatened and feared 'apocalyptic' war, also involving Iran could easily ensue. Win or lose, Assad's position as supreme ruler of Syria could be easily cemented, at least until a new generation of rebels picks up the cudgel from the last generation.

If Iran and others work in concert to topple his regime, the Syrian president's ouster may only be months away. Barring an overthrow of him by his top generals, Assad is likely to survive for awhile yet. Potentially, his overthrow could be months away, years...or never, until the seedlings of democracy in Syria are allowed to flourish into a strong and viable democracy. Even in other Arab countries where the despots were overthrown, democracy is still tenuous. The seedlings are there, but the democracy will take time to fully grow and flourish in a region long known for war, violence, brutality, fear, and oppression.

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