by Bruno Somerset

Created on: March 15, 2007   Last Updated: April 27, 2007

With selection Sunday only a week away, college basketball fans are starting to gear up for the Big Dance. While the Super Bowl may be the single most watched one-day sporting event in America, it rarely comes close to drama that unfolds over the three weeks of the NCAA tournament. And one of the most exciting aspects of these three weeks in March is filling out your tournament bracket.

Picking NCAA teams for your March Madness Tournament pool is both an art and a science. The science part consists of studying things like strength of schedule, early round match-ups, and key injuries. A team's record is important, but not as important as it would seem at first. Look for who got hot at the end of the season, particularly in the conference tournaments. Momentum can be a huge factor, especially early in the NCAA Tournament.

The art aspect is not unlike throwing darts at a board; no matter how good you are one always seems to slip out of your hand. You can study every aspect and still lose if you pick against that year's Cinderella team. And most of the time, the experts' picks are no better than anyone else's. That said, here are a few suggestions:

1. If your alma mater is in the tournament, ALWAYS pick them to go all the way. Do this even if they probably won't get past the first round. You must do this for two reasons: 1) loyalty, and 2) the possible humiliation you would face for not picking your own school if they do go all the way. That kind of regret is more than most people can handle.

2. Pick the strongest teams in your part of the country. State and regional pride is important, as is being able to talk trash to folks from neighboring states. I'm a Texan, so Texas will likely make it to at least the Sweet Sixteen on my bracket. And though I'm not particularly fond of Texas A&M, they would be one of my picks as well.

3. Find the best sleeper you can. Some years look good for Cinderellas and some don't, but there's always one. You need to figure out who it will be, if only to keep them from busting your bracket early. When possible, pick the smallest school from a good mid-major conference. One-word schools (Butler, Winthrop, Drake, etc.) seem to do better than the "directional" schools (Northeast Indiana, Southwest Oklahoma, etc.).

4. When you get to your Elite Eight, switch back to conventional wisdom. The tournament may be crazy in the first rounds, but by the quarters things will pretty much revert to form. Picking North Carolina, Kansas, Duke, or UCLA to win it all is never a bad strategy.

5. Never fill out more than one bracket. There are people who fill out multiple brackets every year, and they are always disappointed. The reason is that you can't really feel good about yourself if you win one of them, and it divides your focus at a time when you should be putting all of your energy into getting that one bracket right.

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