by Mark Hopkins

Created on: February 13, 2011   Last Updated: February 14, 2011

With the fall of President Hosni Mubarak a mere three days old, it is early days to judge the long term implications for Israel, but there are good reasons to be hopeful. While Israeli-Egyptian relations were not a prime cause of the Egyptian people's uprising, they are likely to be affected by the outcome.

The interim Military Council which has taken control of government in Egypt has promised to respect all their nation's international obligations and treaties, including the 1979 Camp David peace agreement with Israel. It has also promised to bring about 'free and democratic' elections in Egypt and hand over power to a civilian government. Provided that this happens, the resulting government will be in a strong position vis a vis the vexed questions of Gaza, the West Bank and a final peace deal between Palestine and Israel.

Hosni Mubarak's government was a force for maintaining the 'status quo', regarding Israel, at least partly because his country was paid over a billion dollars annually by the USA to do so.  Egypt, at least at government level, turned a blind eye to the unconscionable suffering of the Palestinians of Gaza. Disproportionate Israeli retaliation for missile attacks coming from Gaza passed almost without comment. So did Israeli intransigence concerning the future of Jerusalem and the illegal building of Jewish settlements on occupied land in the West Bank. 

None of this was in the long term interests of Israel. It has made the task of securing peace ultimately more difficult. Israel has moved towards becoming a pariah state whose only supporter is the USA.  It has done nothing to dampen the Palestinians' determination to have justice for themselves. It has done much to convince a minority that the only way to achieve their aims is by suicide bombs and terrorism. There is a good chance that if democracy flowers in Egypt now, this downward spiral might come to an end.

Egypt is the most populous state in the Middle East, with great prestige. Many of its people are extremely well-educated. It is a multi-faith nation, mainly Moslem but with a significant Christian minority, not a breeding ground of religious fanatics. Although not a nuclear power, like Israel is, Egypt has a large and well-equipped Army well able to defend its borders. A democratically elected Egyptian government would be in a strong position to influence Israel to adopt a more flexible position

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