by Cinda Smaagaard

Created on: February 08, 2011

The U.S. is concerned about any impact the loss of Pres. Mubarak in Egypt will cause to national and international interests.  The question is not so much IF Mubarak leaves, but WHEN.  The U.S. is concerned that if Pres. Mubarak were to simply remove himself from office, the Egyptian Constitution would require a 60-day time limit to start deciding who his replacement would be.  Although Mubarak has appointed Suleiman as Vice President, the people on the streets are very distrustful of the current Egyptian administration and Suleiman's past as an intelligence officer and military man.  The impact to the U.S. in lost revenue, tourism, economic and political stability and safety in the Egyptian region are just now being measured.  Over 200 people have lost their lives and many more were imprisoned or beaten.  If Mubarak were to be forcibly removed, it would neither benefit his 30-year career and support of the U.S., nor would it benefit the U.S. gas and oil interests in the region which is why special envoys have been sent who represent these companies.

The current political vacuum has caused an interesting crop of contenders.  Front-runners like ElBaradei lost credibility among Egypt's old guard and economic elite.  His emotional tirade on camera with CNN reporter Anderson Cooper shouting that Mubarak was a "dead man walking" won little support with anyone and may have been why many Mubarak supporters attacked CNN news crews in the streets.  The Muslim Brotherhood was one of the few opposition groups who accepted VP Suleiman and Pres. Mubarak's invitation to talks.  They have already stated they will not be running in the 2011 elections to replace Mubarak, but their ties to such terrorist groups such as Hamas in Palestine make them unpopular with the younger Islamic students who are well-educated and familiar with what happened in Iran.  The Tomorrow Party shows some promise, but may be out of touch with the more conservative or elite Egyptians.

The latest speaker to emerge from the shadows is Ahmed Zewail.  He was recently featured on PBS' News Hour 2/7/2011 as another voice for democracy.  Although he has no political aspirations (ANSamed 2/1/2011), he will probably be an instrumental voice among the Arab and Islamic Egyptian people in the months ahead.  Not only did he win a Nobel Prize for Chemistry (see his lecture 12/8/1999), he was featured on an Egyptian stamp

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