by Juan Leer

Created on: October 06, 2010

The common perception in sports and in fantasy sports is that rookies are unpredictable, and generally you should try to avoid them. In one sense, this is true, rookies can be unpredictable and inconsistent and they try to learn their craft in the NFL. On the other hand, this could make them undervalued, and make them good bargains as long as you know what you are looking for.

The first thing to understand is that you should not pick or rely on a rookie quarterback. Of all positions, this tends to be the one with the steepest learning curve. Guys can have success (such as Matt Ryan), but even a really good rookie QB is unlikely to be very much use to your fantasy team. Even Peyton Manning, the best QB of this era, wouldn't have done you too much good as a rookie QB for your fantasy squad. There are times to take risks on rookies, and the QB position is not one of them.

Wide receiver is also generally a position that does not yield very good returns when it comes to rookies contributing. Guys like Randy Moss, who come in and have a huge impact, are rare. You can find some sleepers there that will help, but I wouldn't try to take one too high in the draft, as it is very difficult to predict. If you want to take a rookie WR this year, Mike Williams of the Tampa Bay Bucs looks like the best bet, because he will get a lot of playing time learning along with Josh Freeman.

Running back is the place where a rookie is most likely to make an impact on your fantasy team. Running backs tend to have a much shorter learning curve than a lot of other positions, and this makes them attractive for your team, especially if other people in your league are leery about taking a rookie RB. Over the years there have been many that have immediately paid dividends both for their NFL teams and for your fantasy team.

Two guys look like a good bet this season. The first is Ryan Matthews of the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers traded up in the first round to get him, so they will likely try to get him on the field as quickly as possible to get a return on their investment. The other guy is Jahvid Best for the Detroit Lions. If he is able to stay healthy, he has the explosion and he will have the opportunity to contribute for the Lions offense.

Rookies can be risky, but there are ways to minimize that risk for your fantasy team. If you steer clear of quarterbacks and wide receivers, you will have a better shot of success. In particular, the two guys I mentioned have a very good chance of making an impact for your fantasy team this season.

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