by Carl Marshall

Created on: September 30, 2010

The exponential growth of online sports betting has sparked an increase in the number of services selling sports picks. These advisory services have well presented websites, displaying impressive historical records, to try to convince people to give up their hard earned money.

But is it ever really a good idea to part with your cash?

There are of course, some problems with the records which many of these advisory services publish. There are three categories. First of all, there are those who deliberately try to deceive. The historical profits which are claimed to have been achieved are pure fiction. These types of services tend to exist only for a short time. When everyone has figured out they are charlatans, they disappear, never to be seen again, at least not under the same name.

Next, there are the ones who are economical with the truth. They show odds in retrospect, therefore presenting their picks as profitable. They claim to have taken odds which would have been very difficult to obtain. To get those prices, it would be necessary to monitor every price, with every bookmaker and betting exchange, all day long. Then, with exceptional intuition, one would have to know that the price would be the best it will ever be. If anyone had this level of skill, they would make a million dollars rapidly. In reality, such people don't exist.

Finally, and thankfully, there are the genuine people, running genuine services, achieving real long term profit.

So, how can the genuine services be identified?

Find as many reputable sports betting monitoring services as you can. Picks must be posted to these sites prior to the start of an event, to enable picks results to be proved. There are monitoring services which have been around for a long time, and are reputable. All good picks services will post their picks to at least one monitor. Then, look at how many picks have been monitored. The results should have statistical significance. Look for profit over a minimum of 500 bets.

Spend a few days looking at the odds published, and the bookmakers which have been used. It is important to determine the likelihood of being able to obtain these prices over the long term. Many bookmakers close accounts when a certain amount of money is built up. If the people selling the picks are using these bookmakers, then their long term profit is theoretical rather than practical. People will not be allowed to make money over the long term, due to closure of their accounts.

Another consideration is the cost of the picks. It might be that the amount of profit which could realistically be achieved, would be cancelled out by the cost of the picks.

There is also the issue of when the picks are released. If it is just before the start of the event, it may be difficult to always have access to a computer.

Sadly, the vast majority of picks services fail the filtering process.

If you do decide that it is worth buying picks, then make sure you put enough time in doing your research in order to identify a genuine service. Otherwise, there will be consequences for your bank balance.

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