by Matthew Owen

Created on: March 05, 2007   Last Updated: April 20, 2007

It now seems extremely likely that the armed forces of the United States, quite probably in conjunction with those of the State of Israel, will attack Iran, based upon both the extreme similarity to the events preceding the attack of the US-led "coalition of the willing" against Iraq in 2003, and the specifics of plans and preparations for the attack against Iran.

The propaganda campaign, aided and abetted by compliant US media, is well advanced: well-documented facts concerning Iran's development of a nuclear energy program and of Iran's support of Shi'ite political factions, such as Hazb Ullah in Lebanon or the Mahdi Army in Iraq, as well as the Iranian Government's strident anti-Zionism, are "spiced" with (dis)information, often from anonymous "government officials" or without any attribution whatsoever, of advanced time-lines for the development of Iranian nuclear weapons (which contradict published US intelligence estimates, any findings from the IAEA, etc.) supposed Iranian support of insurgents (fighting against an Iraqi government Iran supports in far greater depth than does the US) and so on. In short, there is clear evidence of a "psyop," or psychological operation, being run from within the United States and/or Israeli Government(s) against the people of the United States, in order to build support for US/Israeli aggression against Iran, just as the Bush Administration carefully orchestrated the psyop against the people of the United States in order to induce their support of an invasion of Iraq.

The military preparations are indeed well advanced, especially in light of the US/Israeli plan for an aerial first strike, quite possibly including nuclear aggression, according to published US military doctrine. Carrier task forces, which are large armadas centred around aircraft carriers, keep sailing into the Persian Gulf; the troop "surge" in Iraq has resulted in the redeployment of US forces nearer the Iranian border; the Israelis are negotiating for overflight rights in order to attack Iran by air; US antimissile batteries are being positioned to absorb any Iranian missile counterattack; basing rights are being secured at airbases within striking range of Iran for US warplanes and supporting aircraft, etc.

The US/Israeli diplomatic offensive against Iran is so similar to the one conducted against Iraq prior to the US invasion that it obscures one key difference: unlike Iraq under Saddam Hussein, the Islamic Republic of Iran has never attacked anyone. Strong words and strong military preparations do not aggression make.

How would war break out between the US and Iran? There are several scenarios:

A) Most likely: a "Tonkin Gulf" type of incident involving an Iranian attack on US naval assets... or a US naval attack on Iranian naval forces, "explained" as protecting shipping in the Persian Gulf.

B) A "hot pursuit" of "terrorists" into Iran by US forces...or the reverse scenario of Iranian "hot pursuit" of US-supported "terrorists," such as the Mujahadeen-e-Khalq (MEK, listed as a terrorist organisation by the US State Department).

C) A major terrorist attack, on the scale of 9-11, inside the US...or Israel, or Iran.

D) A "preemptive" attack by either US or Iranian forces, based upon well-substantiated belief that attack by the other side was imminent.

In light of the above, I repeat: a US attack of Iran is highly likely; whether the US should do this is a separate discussion.

Learn more about this author, Matthew Owen.
Click here to send this author comments or questions.