by Jarad Perry

Created on: March 04, 2007   Last Updated: August 20, 2009

As the world as witnessed, the stability of Iran as a state is both at first a matter of contention, but a closer look shows there are cracks within the framework of the political system. The recent riots over an obviously fraudulent election has shown to the world the deep fissures within the country.

According to the CIA World Fact Book the population of Iran is 68,688,433 with a total literacy rate of 79.4%. The population is well educated and yet the average income of an Iranian Citizen is only $8,900. They are the second largest oil producing country in the world and yet if their current market status continues in the next 5 years their oil industry will collapse under the weight of inadequacy and lack of modernization of oil fields.

Now, some believe an armed confrontation is necessary in the current situation, however such a step should only be used as a last resort, and truly not at all. The more realistic route is continue to foster support for those protesters that flooded the streets of Terahn. The United States needs to foster the dissent among the younger Iranian generation and support pro-democratic groups within Iran itself. The victory will come not with an armed conflict but with the collapse of the regime within it's own boarders. Such a scenario would lead to a more stable region while severely crippling terrorist groups that are funded by the Iranian state, the top of which is Hezbollah and leave the Syrian government more or less isolated in this region.

With a democratic Iran in the region there would be a power shift that would ultimately deal a severe blow to terrorism globally. This scenario is not perfect by any means, but it is one that would create a more favorable outcome then an armed conflict.

However, the great failures of the Bush administration as well as the apparent ineptitude of the Obama administration leave one with the feeling that a stable region is far down the road.

The great fallacy in Middle Eastern Policy is a misunderstanding of how these countries came to be nation-states. if some could even loosely be categorized. Arbitrary boarders and a complete jig-sawing of the region goes back to the late 19th and early to mid-20th centuries. A common lack of historical perspective pervades both sides and only illustrates the great failures of certain schools of though.

Learn more about this author, Jarad Perry.
Click here to send this author comments or questions.