by Stephen Quigley

Created on: March 04, 2007   Last Updated: July 14, 2007

North Korea is behaving rationally in engaging in talks about their nuclear plans but their demands are irrational. The amount that they are demanding in exchange for giving up their nuclear facilities is huge and sends a bad signal to would be nuclear states.

An agreement has just been signed between the U.S, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and North Korea for North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons. Under the deal, the North will receive initial aid equal to 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil in exchange for shutting down and sealing its main nuclear reactor and related facilities at Yongbyon, north of the capital, within 60 days. North Korea also has to let international inspectors into the site and now has to disclose its nuclear programmes.

The North will receive another 950,000 tons in energy and in economic and humanitarian aid for irreversibly disabling the reactor and declaring all nuclear programs. This may include a complete list of its plutonium capabilities, which was the fuel used in the country's first nuclear blast in October 2006.
North Korea will consider this deal a blessing. It is the first step taken by North Korea to scale back its nuclear development after more than three years of talks and not only will the U.S. and North Korea now restart diplomatic ties but there will be bilateral talks between the two nations.

The main gain for the North is that the U.S. will not only remove North Korea from its status as a terror sponsoring state but it will lift trade sanctions that were imposed in response to the nuclear test in October. The deal will mean the equivalent of 300 million dollars in oil and that is equivalent to around 65% of North Korea's annual oil consumption.

Kim Jong Il will be giving nothing to the U.S. except for breakable promises. The possession of nuclear weapons is the only card that he holds. Although this is a strong card, it is not completely unbeatable. This agreement will make him feel that it is. It could be more dangerous for North Korea in the long term because it could make then feel invincible.

Making sure North Korea declares all its nuclear facilities and shuts them down is likely to prove difficult. The North has sidestepped previous agreements, allegedly running a uranium-based weapons program even as it froze a plutonium-based one, sparking the latest nuclear crisis in late 2002. The country is believed to have countless mountainside tunnels, bunkers and chambers in which to hide production facilities and projects.

In

• 1
• 2
• 3
• Next Page >>