The final week of the no-waiver 2010 trading deadline race is predicted to be one of the most active in recent years regarding big name impact players. Consider that Cliff Lee and Dan Haren have both changed uniforms already and how many teams jumped into those discussions sincerely, and it is pretty evident that the desire to make big moves exists. Most of the deadlines that passed over the last decade saw a big name or two move, but most moves were role players who are valuable - just not on the marquee. 2010 is the perfect storm of trade deadlines.
There are several big names out there that have GM’s looking to make a deal. Consider that Roy Oswalt, Corey Hart, Prince Fielder, Jayson Werth, Jorge Cantu, Ty Wigginton, Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona, and possibly Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns are available along with Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly, and there are plenty of impact players around. For the most part these players are prone to be moved as a salary dump. The odds are none will come cheap, and try as their GM’s may, a few may prove impossible to move for anything good.
Corey Hart is the current prize among hitters - not Prince Fielder. Hart is hitting a ton and will work out well for an AL or NL team. He is still under a reasonable contract and young enough to extend out. Prince Fielder may be more coveted, but is in less demand. Basically the Giants and White Sox are the teams that need a first baseman, but neither has the pieces to get him. His contract is going to be around $25 million per season after 2011 when he hits free agency. That severely limits who can really sign him. Milwaukee would love to move him this week and get the highest possible trade value for him, there just aren’t any takers yet.
Jayson Werth is gone before the season ends - that much is known. Philly wants to get Dominic Brown up right now and start his big league career. Werth is having a bad season, he is a free agent to be this off-season and they have already decided not to pick him up. If they don’t move him now, the return on him is negligible at best. The Yankees and Red Sox have shown interest, but San Fran is the best fit and they may land him. The odds are they get him for a few marginal mid-level prospects as Phily has waited too long to dump him. L.A. however may change everything as they have dipped a toe into pool of Werth.
Jorge Cantu and Ty Wigginton may not be the huge names on the list, but they are big impact players. The Marlins dump salary every year and the Orioles are going nowhere at the speed of suck. Neither team wants to keep paying their salaries, but they may be holding out for more than the market is going to offer. Wigginton doesn’t quite have the glove to swing around the infield as well as he once did, but Cantu does. Both have fair salaries and can play in either league although they will likely get the most interest as DH’s that take the field once a week. Boston has interest in both, and the Yankees have looked at Wigginton - just not too seriously. The Rangers are somehow finding money they don’t have to look at Wigginton as well - how a broke franchise can keep adding salary is a mystery.
Kearns and Dunn are heavily coveted by several teams. Dunn is not officially available, but Cleveland sports talk shows have rumored there have been calls made about him. His salary is a bit high so the Indians may have to eat a little of that to get plus prospects or take less for a full salary dump. The Dodgers were rumored to have interest for some reason as were the Mets. The White Sox were also said to have made some polite inquiries. Dunn is the guy in the pair most likely to move. He is a pure power hitter that would be a great DH. The Red Sox have shown the most interest, but the Yankees are rumored to have inquired as well. Don’t be totally surprised if the Cardinals kick the tires as well.
Oswalt, Zambrano, and Lilly are all available. Zambrano is not likely to go anywhere thanks to his meltdown on the field and in his head this year, but the Cubs are willing to listen to any offer on him. Lilly will almost definitely move. The Mets and Yankees are looking at him seriously. The Mets were slight front runners until Andy Pettite got hurt and Phil Hughes lost some velocity. The Yankees have coveted Lilly since they traded him to Toronto years ago, and the news that Joba Chamberlain is not so untouchable anymore makes them favorites. The Cubs need bullpen help (All over help really), and while calling Joba “help” the way he has pitched this year is debatable, he is still worth something and young.
Oswalt is the man of the hour amongst all players mentioned. Reports contradicting each other fill every outlet as quickly as they can be disseminated. Oswalt has a no trade clause which can make things tricky and he is adamant that wherever he goes his option for next year is picked up. That limits his real suitors to about 5 teams - Boston, The Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Cardinals. The Red Sox have little real interest aside from raising the stakes. Th Phillies really want to swap Werth for Oswalt straight up, but Houston is not biting - they want a top line pitching prospect at the least in a deal. The Cardinals have all the pieces to swing the deal and Oswalt looks like he is receptive to St. Louis so that is a possibility.
The Mets are desperate and will overpay, the problem is they don’t have the right talent to overpay with. The Yankees have pitching and catching prospects as well as the ability to pick up his option year. Oswalt is good friends with Andy Pettitte which may help grease the wheels and he has said in the past he wants to be on a legitimate contender. Reports began circulating that Oswalt did not want to go to the Yankees because it is too big of a stage, but they all can be traced back to one writer at the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo, who is citing a mystery source. Chalk that up to probable garbage.
What likely winds up happening before the no waiver trade deadline to the above players is the following:
* Prince Fielder and Zambrano stay put
* Oswalt winds up with the Yankees if NY agrees to take the full salary hit and possibly move Joba
* Ted Lilly goes to the Mets assuming the Yankees get Oswalt - if Oswalt goes elsewhere then Lilly goes to the Yankees.
* Jayson Werth goes to the Dodgers for reasons unknown to sanity and does nothing for them.
* Fautso Carmona gets dealt after the no waiver deadline, Jake Westbrook goes to the Mets for prospects as his trade payout is a huge burden
* Adam Dunn stays put with no takers for his contract, Austin Kearns shocks everyone and winds up in Anaheim
* Ty Wigginton goes to the Rangers
* Jorge Cantu goes to the Yankees and promptly injures himself missing the remainder of the season
* Corey Hart finds himself in Atlanta
The big news is that the Marlins actually hold onto Cody Ross even though they can hold him up for ransom right now to Boston or New York. Don’t expect Boston to walk away with no one however, they may surprise a lot of people and swing a deal with Atlanta to bring in either Nate McLouth or Melky Cabrerra.