by Neil Wagner

Created on: March 01, 2007   Last Updated: October 31, 2008

The main reason the Yankees are likely to win the 2007 AL pennant is because they will be best at addressing whatever mid-season deficiencies crop up. Some of this is due to their GM and a lot of it is due to having a virtually unlimited payroll. Sorry Kansas City Royal fans, it isn't fair and I commiserate with you but the current baseball setup rewards teams with the ability spend freely. It isn't guaranteed to produce a winner but it's an almost necessary first step.

Predicting a baseball team's likely outcome at the spring training season is notoriously inaccurate (that's whyt they play the games). Both the Yankees and Red Sox have incoming Japanese pitchers and not even scouts really know if their careers will be more like Hideki Matsui's or Hideki Irabu's. Injuries, too will make laughable many pre-season predictions. The fact that the Yankees will score plenty of runs is a pretty safe prediction. Questions remain about their pitching staff and the age of regulars like Jorge Posada. Both Andy Pettite and Mike Mussina are showing wear, but most teams have similar pitching concerns. When the Yankees find themselves in need of a starting pitcher or two in the middle of the season, they will acquire bodies and if they are ineffective, acquire others. In 2005, It was Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon, in 2006 Cory Lidle. Small market teams always have players whose contracts are up and who they won't have the money to re-sign. The Yankees will aggressively pursue these players. They also won't have to worry about any more Randy Johnson losing efforts in the post-season, since he's gone. His 5.00 ERA is not likely to be missed. Scott Karstens was effective in a half dozen or so starts last year and is a possible replacement for the formerly "Big Unit". The Red Sox basically had a 2 player offense last year and have as many pitching questions as the Yankees. The White Sox and Tigers, while good teams, are not clearly better than the Yankees. As long as the Yanks do not meet the Angels in the post-season (a team they seemingly cannot beat), they have to be considered the favorite to win the AL crown. It's a long season and there are sure to be surprises but the Yankees are the team best equipped to deal with those surprises.

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