by Luiz Bravim

Created on: July 04, 2010   Last Updated: July 06, 2010

Weeks before the start of the second Iraq War, Secretary of State Colin Powell famously advised: “You break it, you own it.” Ignored by the president and every other member of the innermost circle, Powell was goaded into presenting false intelligence to the United Nations on the threat of WMD from Saddam Hussein. The international reputation of the U.S. dovetailed with the fallen war-hero's over the very same issue.

The world was united after 9/11. Moral and political outrage over the unprovoked attacks led to an impressive coalition that decimated the Afghanistan government. The mistake came afterwards, when the War on Terror morphed into a crusade to bring democracy to the Middle East.

Historians will say March 20, 2003 marked the beginning of a precipitous decline in world’s last superpower of the post-Cold War era. In the seven years since, over 4,700 coalition troops have died and 32,000 have been wounded. Abu Ghraib is Generation Y’s My Lai massacre. On almost every account, U.S. involvement in Iraq has failed both the American and Iraqi people. There is nothing resembling a democracy. Signs of an active WMD program were not found. Iran has been strengthened towards the acquisition of nuclear materials. Israel’s security situation is more complicated as a result of the war.

Troop withdrawal presents the Obama administration with a web of unattractive options. Staying longer may evolve into a permanent military presence akin to the situation in South Korea, where 38,000 soldiers remain 60+ years after a cease-fire agreement ended the Korean War. Leaving abruptly risks an out-of-control Iraq being unduly influenced by the Iranians, Saudis, and non-state actors opposed to American interests.

Iraq is unlikely to be able to defend itself from major internal and external threats for at least a decade. The professionalization of the police force varies widely from region to region. Military morale is shaky. As if acknowledging the instability, coalition forces provide coverage just outside the cities. Four months after a major election, there is no governing coalition.

The Iraqi public has seen improvements since the low points of the war. Curfews, hourly bombings, and a Baathist resurgence are concerns of the past. There is rising commercial activity and oil revenues exceed pre-war levels. Confidence in the future is markedly better than for Afghanistan, and arguable higher than for neighboring Persian Gulf states.

Withdrawal is a moral question involving military logistics and public diplomacy. Loss of face for the White House, Congress, media and supporting institutions does not justify extending the costliest operation since World War II ad infinitum. The U.S. must begin a phased troop withdrawal. The present state of the war is unsustainable from an economic perspective. One in 10 Americans is unemployed. Record budget deficits imperil the future and entangle the next generation. Allies have been pulling out for a year. America’s obligation toward Iraq is not what ought to be done, but what can be. In 2010, there is precious little that the U.S. Armed Forces can do that has not already been tried. The destiny of Iraq will be determined by its people, as it should be.

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