During President Obama’s speech addressing the health care reform bill and vote at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, he made some very lofty promises and as good as it all sounds coming out of his mouth, will it live up to the hype? Who are Americans to believe? Does the math add up? Are emotionally heartbreaking stories of individuals reason enough to change the structure of health care as it effects everyone? Will the health care reform bill vote scheduled for Sunday have the 216 votes it needs to pass?
The first condition that has to be looked at is the votes. If the votes are not there nothing else matters. The Democrat party is announcing they have the edge since John Boccieri may set the trend for politicians to flip flop on their earlier vote. As confident as they are the latest count is so close with too many votes on the edge of falling to either side nobody impartial is willing to confidently predict an outcome. Dennis Kucinich is practically begging for votes supporting the bill. It may not be enough.
The vote many believe has to be on Sunday as any delay will likely kill all momentum. It is momentum they sorely need, as even some politicians that have stated they will support the health care reform bill have also stated they do not in any way support the riders that President Obama has forced into it like Rep, Jerold Nadler (D) NY. As Nadler said on MSNBC, this bill passing will save 45,000 lives a year of people that cannot afford life insurance any longer that have pre-existing conditions, and agrees that we should save one life at any cost. It makes for great copy and is a noble ideal. Nadler is confident that any kinks in financing can be worked out by 2018 which is the magic date for the “rent” to be paid.
On the other side of the fence opponents of the bill point out that while 45,000 lives sounds like a huge number, in the global and even national scheme of things that is an acceptable loss to save $100 billion dollars per year at the lowest estimate. That puts the price on an individual human life at about $2.22 million dollars each. Of course no politician will phrase it that way, but that is what you get reading between the lines, and they feel that is too much. That leads into the second area of examination which is the money involved in carrying out the health care reform bill as it is currently written.
President Obama stated in his speech that the best part of the bill is the money to fund it doesn’t actually have to be raised anywhere, it is going to come from trimming money lost in the health care system already to fraud, waste and abuse. That sounds excellent, but how many times have Americans heard that pitch before in regards to countless things? It is certainly possible, but is it reality? President Obama stated:
“Finally, my proposal would bring down the cost of health care for families, businesses, and the federal government. Americans buying comparable coverage to what they have today in the individual market would see premiums fall by 14 to 20 percent. For Americans who get their insurance through the workplace, costs could be as much as $3,000 a person less than they would be if we do nothing. Altogether, our cost-cutting measures would reduce most people's premiums and bring down our deficit by more than $1 trillion over the next two decades. And those aren't my numbers; they are the savings determined by the Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan, independent referee of Congress.”
It doesn’t seem like it as the language of the current version of the health care reform bill states that some of the financing will come via borrowing from social security which is already on the skids. In fact there is quite a bit of language which allows for diverting money from other programs unrelated to health care as well to finance the bill. While that is business as usual in Washington politics - or any politics for that fact from all parties - it was not truly represented in the president's speech.
The CBO on the other hand says that within 20 years the health care reform bill will pay for itself by people being healthier. They are so confident of this in fact that they say it will cover 95% of the cost. The problem is the CBO has been notoriously wrong under as many administrations on any number of projections than anyone can count. Further vexing the problem is they have yet to release any information on how they arrived at the 95% cost coverage estimate.
Some of the key points of the plan President Obama pushed to a group primarily comprised of college students is that if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. He then stated:
“ And here's what reform will mean for so many of the students who are here today: starting this year, if you don't have insurance, all new plans will allow you to stay on your parents' insurance policy until you're 26 years old. Because as you start your lives and your careers, the last thing you should worry about is whether you'll go broke just because you get sick.”
The bottom line is America sorely needs health care reform and as human beings it is deserved. Rarely if ever is there a piece of legislation of this magnitude that does not have some fleas that need to be scratched. Partisan politics are not making passage any easier. All we can hope for is that our faith in our elected officials is re-affirmed in their responsibility to do what is best for their constituents. Whether it is this bill or a version of this bill which is reworked before the impending Sunday 3/21/10 vote is for anyone to guess. The one thing that Americans should not have to guess about however is whether their elected officials will sit down at the table and make something work correctly for a change. Perfect or imperfect, this bill needs to be examined seriously with party affiliations cast aside and what is best for the country as a whole needs to be the deciding factor - not how it will play in the press.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/20/health/policy/20he alth-text.html?pagewanted=1
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35928063/ns/politics-hea lth_care_reform/
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/03/ cbo_health-care_reform_bill_cu.html
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/health-care-reform/
MSNBC live television broadcast 3/19/10