by Bob Duden

Created on: February 23, 2010

Handicapping a horse race is called a science.  It's not a sweet science, that would be boxing.  It's not a succinct science either, that would be like equating physics to the physical attributes of thoroughbred stallions and predicting the winner of a race every time.  No, handicapping a horse race involves the science of using breeding and past performances to put odds on each horse entered in a race.  Those odds are then used to induce betting on each animal's chances to win.  The Sport of Kings is reduced to a game of chance.  Take the owners, trainers and jockeys out of the mix and the result of the race is just the public's love of gambling.  Odds are that if an odds on favorite didn't win, the result was an upset.  If the odds on the winner were really long, you have the big upset, the United States hockey team beating the Soviets or Clay knocking out Liston, and there have been some big upsets in the Kentucky Derby, but none bigger than what transpired in 2009.

The Kentucky Derby is billed as the fastest two minutes in sports.  Held every year on the first Saturday in May, it is the most prestigious horse race in the world and has been run since 1875 In the Louisville horse country at the track now named Churchill Downs.  It is the first leg of what has become the triple crown of horse racing for three year olds with the Preakness and Belmont following.  It is the "run for the roses", a blanket of red roses to the winner.  It is the race that can turn a horse into a legend, a horse like Mine That Bird..      

A horse with limited breeding, a horse with no respect, a horse of a different color, in 2009 Mine That Bird won the Derby.  Purchased for the mere sum of $9500 in 2007, Mine that Bird was gelded due to attitude.  Raced in Canada, he was the 2008 two year old champion north of the border but, when he moved up in stakes here in the States, he found little success finishing dead last in the 2008 Breeders Cup Juvenile..  He was sold as a two year old to a ranch in New Mexico and under trainer Chip Woolley raced twice before his nomination to the Derby.  Much of his credentials for that nomination was due to his two year old earnings in Canada.  Trucked from New Mexico in a trailer attached to Woolley's pick up truck, Mine That Bird arrived in Kentucky as an after thought to the odds makers.  He went off at 50 to 1, the eighteenth rated horse in the field.

On a sloppy track under the guidance of jockey Calvin Borel, Mine That Bird was in the back of the pack riding the rail along the back stretch.  Nearing the turn for home, Borel asked the horse to run, and run he did.  Gaining ground with such startling speed that it caught even the track and television announcers by surprise, Mine That Bird passed the field and ran through the wire to a six and three quarter length victory.  It was the biggest margin of victory in sixty three years and the fastest final quarter in twenty six years.  Based on the odds, it was the second biggest upset in Derby history only being eclipsed by Donerail in 1913.  Of course, the science of handicapping horses is far advanced today from what it was in 1913.  Donerail's win was a surprise, Mine That Bird's was the most astounding upset in Kentucky Derby history.     

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