by Tom Magill

Created on: February 21, 2007   Last Updated: March 19, 2008

With the US elections still about 18 months away, its interesting to see so much speculation on its outcome at such an early stage. I can't complain though, almost immediately after the 2004 election I was absolutely certain that Hilary Clinton would be the next president. Up until now, i remained convinced that this would in fact be the case for several reasons, whats more there was a general consensus going around last year that Clinton had both the nomination and the white house tied up.

To explain my initial convictions, Firstly, George Bush's popularity was clearly going to decline leading up to '08. All presidents Hemorrhage votes as their premiership lengthens and with a final term sealed up, George wasn't going to try and impress us. It was clear that there would be such a huge backlash at the failings of the Republicans (as indicated by the 2006 elections) that a democrat candidate was going to be the next to hold the white house.

Hilary Clinton was clearly that candidate. She's part of the Clinton dynasty. People tend to lean towards someone with previous experience in voting for a president, as a result Incumbent presidents and their Vice presidents are incredibly difficult to shoulder aside in the quest for the oval office. Clinton however, will face neither a President nor a VP and is therefore the only person apart from Al Gore who has spent a significant period of time in or around the White House.

Whats more, People know who Hilary Clinton is. She has a pretty successful autobiography and The Monica Lewinsky affair probably sold her to a lot of Americans. Though some would see her as weak for not dumping Bill, her actions may win her the votes of a lot of "stand by your man" Conservatives, which is a very good Cross-party talisman. There is also the fact that she is a woman and a strong woman at that, the sort of thing that some people think has been a long time coming to the white house. More importantly all of these things may bring in people who initially had no interest in voting, which is clearly going to be very important this year.

I believed this with an almost religious fervor until the beginning of the year. Barack Obama may be behind Hilary in the opinion polls, but he was everywhere you looked. He was NEW, he was INSPIRED. Over time i became more and more certain that this would make him the underdog candidate who got in through the back door. But Obama-fever seems to have peaked a little early and if anything now he and Clinton will

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