by Brian Dodson

Created on: January 16, 2010

One of the most troubling slogans in modern times is “In theory, everything is possible”.  This is not true for any accepted meaning of the term ‘theory’ – at least, not if one is claiming any relationship between the content of the ‘theory’ and the actual behavior of the universe in which we live.  Rather it is a sign of intellectual laziness, of being unwilling to confront the potential falsehood of an idea which is personally gratifying. 

Such statements as “Truth is beauty, beauty truth”, while emotionally satisfying and inspiring, do not actually tell us anything concrete about the way the universe functions.  In this article, we make the tacit assumption that interesting issues concerned with fact must use reality as a touchstone. 

So what is a theory, what is a fact, and what (if anything) is the difference?  These are essentially philosophical questions, and as such are to some extent unanswerable.  Despite this, there are commonly held positions on these questions, and we will try to present an intellectual middle ground while remaining as uncontroversial as is possible while discussing such a topic.  

Let’s begin with restricting the playing field.  What most people think of as a theory is actually a hypothesis – a bare idea about how the universe might behave.  The difference between a hypothesis and a theory is that a theory has been tested for accuracy against the behavior of the universe. 

For example, if one offers the hypothesis that aliens have visited our planet in historic times, this does not constitute a theory.  If one accumulates credible evidence of such visits, then the hypothesis may form the basis of a theory.  We would still need to explain (and prove and test) the reason for the visitations to form a full theory, but the basis upon which to build a theory would then exist. 

If a person says that they weigh 150 pounds (give or take a few) as measured on the surface of Earth as of a certain date, determining if this is a fact requires comparison with the external universe.  Of course, this assumes that there is an external universe, but let’s not go there at this time. 

Given that our ultimate criterion for philosophical concepts is comparison with a ‘real’ external universe, what are theories and facts?  Perhaps the best place to start is with a reasonable definition

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