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Predicting the outcome of the current situation in Iraq is complex and full of possibilities. As surrounding countries vie for advantage, there is not one common cause likely to unite the country. This unique situation is possibly one of the first in recent history where too many conflicting positions exist in one place, and violence is second nature and a daily occurrence.

The stated aim of removing the previous leader, freeing the people and installing a democratic government was foolhardy and doomed to failure yet the Bush administration undertook this task irrespective of almost certain failure. Most Middle Eastern countries will never change to a democratic government because the culture and theocratic control from thousands of years will never permit such freedom. Middle Eastern culture is now in a permanent state where conflicting 21st century ideas and technology clash with a seething cauldron of tribal culture, racial hatred and repressed sexuality born in part because of male domination of women. The mere thought of any woman having freedom of choice is abhorrent for any Middle Eastern male raised to treat them as virtual slaves only good for breeding and pleasure.

The dominant religion fully exploits the control of women and further institutionalises male control by imposing inhumane and unjust restrictions aimed specifically at women. The theocratic dogma teaches that women are the evildoers that seduce men and lead them away from the true path' using sex as their primary weapon of choice. The Western concept of democratic governance threatens this system of belief and control particularly because freedom of choice is offered. Such freedom in culture where religion is a one-way choice such that death is the penalty for any daring conversion to another faith is unthinkable and certainly not something likely to be implemented.

If the US were to withdraw tomorrow, the country would descend into howling barbarity as various religious factions destroy with vengeance anything that is deemed offensive to their belief. Adding to this, oil rich Iraq in such turmoil would be open to exploitation by outside forces willing to risk themselves for the reward of black gold. Allying themselves to the strongest faction in country, any Western interest in the oil fields become invalid and of course to the highest bidder go the spoils. It would not be inconceivable to see a Taliban style of control imposed over the ordinary people of Iraq, and that will leave Iran in a far more powerful position where their existing theocratic government finds itself vindicated by the relative stability in comparison to their self-destructing neighbours.

The foolish desire of a democratic Iraq hardly justifies the loss of life and the increasing body count as foreign occupation provides tempting and politically expedient targets of opportunity to assorted radical groups. The war is effectively over in Iraq, the situation at this time is directly related to the perceived threat surrounding nations see as a contagious disease. The disease is freedom and this is intolerable in a region of intolerant leaders and strongmen. The Middle East has always and will for the foreseeable future be ruled by the strongest. How it plays out from now is an exercise in damage control however the outcome for Iraq is uncertain but without any doubt likely to involve more bloodshed and violence.

Learn more about this author, Ian Loft.
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