by Alastair Harris

Created on: February 18, 2007   Last Updated: April 19, 2007

Many people alive today would know little about the Vietnam war and its consequences, but does the current Iraq war show history is repeating itself.

Without too much into the history Vietnam emerged from the second world war and Japanese occupation and like most Asia countries having had enough of colonial domination from Europe. France had not woken up to the fact that Europe's destruction of itself had resulted in a change in the world order. Eventually Vietnam ended up in a Communist North and a 'Democratic' South. The good ol' USA being the champion of the 'Free' west went to war in Vietnam to stop communism taking over the South. Eventually after about 50,000 causalities the USA pulled out under a 'peace' plan - or a mechanism by which the USA didn't have to lose face (peace with honor). Despite this the USA pride and prestige in the world took a huge hit that it only recovered in the Regan years (thanks to the Russians going to the same experience in Afghanistan). How could a world super-power be beaten by a third world country of rice farmers. This of course is a simplistic view - the Vietnamese received large amounts of assistance from other communist countries and endued approximately 5 million army and civilian causalities. However the lesson was simple, make America bleed enough and it will pull out. This is what is occurring in Iraq now. The Muslim extremists, Iraq nationalists, anti-American coalition or whatever you want to call them are trying to make the USA bleed enough to retreat.

The consequences of such a retreat would be a disaster. Whether you think Bush is an idiot or liar for going to war in the first place are now unfortunately irrelevant. The USA can not afford another loss of the scale of vietnam, with China and India both growing at huge rates, unless the US wants to become the third power it must demonstrate it has the strength to win (strength in the terms of blood). Both India and China could lose a million people and not even batter an eyelid, Russia lost one in five citizens in its great war (WW2), what has the US demonstrated? That it is technologically the most powerful country in the world, but without the willingness to bear human costs. This can be a weakness which others will exploit.

It is a weakness currently being exploited by Iran. As a recent US general has said although not formally at war with Iran 'we kept finding their bombs here'. A hark back to the United States problems with Vietnam and the Ho Chi Min trail though Laos and Cambodia. This once again raises the question of escalation of the war and the question of whether the US would really be prepared for a country like Iran where to conquer the spirit and win the war would result only after the deaths of half the country and every mullah - I don't know that the world will stand for that kind of slaughter. Anyone who doesn't acknowledge that to be a realistic scenario isn't facing facts and is failing to understand the Iranian mindset - consider the deaths Iran and Iraq went through in their own local war. Don't think that will suddenly change because it is the USA involved. Any such war would require the destruction to the nations will to fight, and given the lessons of the past this would take some effort of a country which would consider any invasion a jihad against the great satan.

Once again we hear 'those who don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it.'

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