by Rick Shepard

Created on: December 11, 2009   Last Updated: December 12, 2009

“You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war.” - Albert Einstein

There are so many disparate variables involved with foreign policy that predicting a future conflict is akin to forecasting the Super Bowl Champion before the playoffs start. While some national characteristics are valuable in this evaluation, like the type of governments involved (democracies rarely fight each other) and the percentage of the population that's young, male, and unemployed, there are many variables that are difficult to control.

The most difficult one being conversations and interactions between lower-level leaders and the civilian population that rarely, if ever, make the news.

In today's advanced world, with thousands of media outlets and global communication, presidents and other heads-of-state are keenly aware of the ramifications of their actions. Organizations promoting peace and human rights, while equally as vocal as in years past, have the global leadership's attention like never before.

It's no secret that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has little love for the Jewish people and the state of Israel. While reports of his statement that “Israel should be wiped off the map” have been greatly exaggerated and mistranslated (according to Cole, a University of Michigan Professor of Modern Middle East and South Asian History, Ahmadinejad's statement should be translated as: The Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem must [vanish from] the page of time.), he doesn't hide the fact he is a pro-Palestinian leader in the Middle East.

That being said, Iran's burgeoning democracy coupled with war-weariness in the United States would tend to predict continuing peace, albeit a delicate one.

The real problem would seem to be our continued presence in the region. Because of our current thirst for their oil, coupled with our proclivity for military presence in the area, many Arab leaders see the United States as an unwanted occupier. Israel, being by far our most important ally in that part of the world, bears the brunt of this hostility.

In an indirect way, American environmentalism, with its increasing hostility towards domestic development of our energy resources, can be partly to blame for our need to feed our energy needs. If domestic energy producers could more profitably expand oil, natural gas and coal production, our need to be the Middle East would decrease. With recent events questioning man-made global-warming, hopefully this is soon to be in the cards.

All told, the likelihood of war with Iran would seem to be a bit less than 50/50. Their democratic tendencies, open communication whether the competing governments like it or not, and American war-fatigue would seem to point towards continued balance in Iranian-American relations.

Learn more about this author, Rick Shepard.
Click here to send this author comments or questions.