by Karin Forno

Created on: November 24, 2009   Last Updated: November 26, 2009

H1N1 Influenza: Who's Afraid of the Big Bad Wolf?

You're waiting in line at the grocery store. The person ahead of you keeps coughing, that deep cough that sounds like it comes from the bottom of her lungs. She's wearing sweats, and looks a little pale, like she doesn't feel well. You look around. Everyone else is just standing in line, but you feel a little panicky. Could you get the swine flu from this person? What will happen then?

Well, the answer is yes, you could possibly get the swine flu (we'll call it H1N1 from here on out) from this person, but it's not that likely, and you do have ways to protect yourself. So why are some people, and apparently the CDC, so worried about H1N1?

H1N1 is what's called a novel virus. As far as we know, this exact strain is completely new. So no one is immune to it already. Well, that may not be strictly true. Scientists have observed since the beginning of the H1N1 epidemic that people over 64 have a much lower attack rate of H1N1 than do younger people (http:/www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/65andolder.htm) The implication? People over 64 have been exposed to a similar strain of influenza, perhaps in the distant past. Blood tests on immunity in people over 64 support this conclusion (http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/65andolder.htm). In any case, for the majority of people, this is a brand new flu.

H1N1 has a high transmission rate. It seems to be more communicable than most seasonal flu. That's another concern. H1N1 has also been deadly, especially to very young children, pregnant women, and those with underlying respiratory or metabolic diseases (such as diabetes). (http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm; http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/highrisk.htm)

The main reason the CDC has gotten so concerned about H1N1 is that it has reached pandemic stage, and it did so in the Northern Hemisphere's summer-not the usual influenza pattern. Pandemic stage means there has been human-to-human transmission on an ongoing basis in more than two countries in different regions of the globe (http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/background.htm). The spread of H1N1 in the summer months suggests that it may not slow down even when next summer hits. Those two factors mean an awful lot of people around the world may get H1N1 and some may die.

OK. Let's step back and take a deep breath. First of all, if you're not pregnant, under the age of two, or with underlying health problems, you are not at much risk of dying from H1N1. For most people H1N1 is no more to be

• 1
• 2
• Next Page >>