by Cynthia Corbin

Created on: October 26, 2009   Last Updated: October 27, 2009

The news about jobs and the economy seems to be not as bad compared a year ago. Now with an economic recovery underway, some issues are still in focus. When will payrolls start growing again, how strong will job growth be and when will the unemployment rate begin to lower? One thing, job losses in this recession have been the result of hiring cuts, rather than layoffs. Businesses will remain hesitant to hire as long as overall demand remains subdued and this probably will be the case in the coming year.

Spending in the United States and elsewhere held steady last quarter, but most of the growth in the second half will probably come from companies replenishing their depleted inventories, rather than from resurgence in demand. Businesses remain steady by cutting costs and keeping productivity high. How might this figure into the unemployment rate? Economic growth of 4% or better would be consistent with a topping out in the jobless rate perhaps in the next few months This growth rate would generate more than enough jobs needed to prevent joblessness from rising further.

The companies still concern about weak consumer demand probably will not do much hiring in the near future. It's a trend that might keep unemployment high for the first year of recover. Is the Stimulus bill Helping? Maybe, but it is also causing a stir among everyone concern. The job market was going to be thrown for a loss no matter what. The issue is whether there are fewer job losses than there would have been without the stimulus bill. The Republicans argue that the stimulus is at a loss. After last fall's global financial shock, the job market was going to be "down hill" no matter what.

The constant political back-and-forth on the Stimulus Bill is the Ultimate, because it ignores most of the issues provided by Washington so far. Anytime the government spends more than it takes in, it creates a fiscal stimulus. But everyone is certain and confident the Great Depression of the 1930's will be avoided.

Bailing out bands and other financial firms costs billions. A drop in tax receipts without offsetting spending cuts was the biggest factor in the deficit's rise. Then there are the billions of dollars the Federal Reserve put into asset purchases and other programs. Why don't everyone hear political debate about these efforts? This is not to say the current administration can't take full responsibility for the bulk of the stimulus, and the republicans can't disagree with it.

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