It's September 2009 and Michael Vick is out of prison and on the roster of the Philadelphia Eagles. It's time to get beyond the discussion of his crimes and whether the punishment was appropriate. The legal authorities and the leaders of the National Football League have decided that Vick paid an appropriate penalty. So now it's time to ask whether Vick has the skills and drive to resume his successful National Football League career.
The first part of the answer comes from considering how good Vick was when he was in his prime a few years ago on the Atlanta Falcons. On the one hand, Vick was a unique talent. He was able to do things that no other quarterback had done in the history of the game. No QB ran for as many yards, and none has ever been as elusive.
Vick's combination of speed, power, and ability to shift directions made him almost impossible for a single tackler to handle. He truly was special, as evidenced by the two consecutive years when he set league records for rushing yards and touchdown runs by a quarterback.
However, quarterbacks are not measured by how well they run. They are measured by how well they pass the ball and by how well they avoid making turnovers through interceptions and fumbles. On those accounts, Vick was decidedly mediocre throughout his career. Vick's passing statistics are below average for the five years that he was the Falcons' starting quarterback.
Though he has a very powerful arm, he did not master the ability to make accurate, shorter throws that are crucial to moving the ball downfield. Vick's completion percentage of 50-55% was annually among the lowest in the league, and it was only slightly offset by the fact that his passes went for more yards when they were completed. Moreover, an above-average number of Vick's passes were intercepted, primarily because he couldn't resist using his arm strength to try to make difficult throws to receivers who were well-covered by defenders.
And finally, Vick's propensity for running with the ball left him vulnerable to fumbling when he was hit by multiple tacklers. In three of his five primary years, Vick led the league in fumbles.
So now, let's fast-forward to 2009. Vick hasn't played since 2007, and he was not effective in that year. In fact, it was his worst year as a pro since his rookie season. All of his weaknesses as a passer seemed to be highlighted in 2007, as teams dared him to try to beat them with long throws, and Vick took the bait too often.
As he neared 30 years of age, some of his speed and elusiveness seemed to have been lost, too. There were comments in the Atlanta media and among radio talk show callers that Vick had peaked, and that he would never learn how to maximize his undeniable athletic gifts.
Then, he was arrested on dog-fighting charges. He lost at a trial, and he spent time in prison. He hasn't played competitive football in two years - and, again, he wasn't at the top of his game when he did play. The Philadelphia Eagles have decided that he's worth the risk because he probably still possesses most of his special combination of running and passing ability.
They plan to use him as a hybrid player who will be a threat to run or pass, especially during crucial plays near the goal line. And Vick seems well-suited to that role, as his running ability will force teams to track him closely, and thus leave fewer defenders to stop his passes.
Yet, this specialized role as a hybrid player is relevant for perhaps 10-12 plays per game. Vick isn't likely to play more than that for the Eagles; depending on the game situation, he might not even see that much playing time. Ten to 12 plays hardly represents a big comeback, and it's light-years from the heights he enjoyed early in the 2000s.
No other NFL team was interested in having him be their marquee quarterback, given his middling performance as a passer, his dog-fighting convictions, and his previous incidents of misconduct.
So, the answer seems to be that Michael Vick will not be making a big comeback. He's back in the NFL, and he appears to be healthy physically and making amends to society. Those are not small achievements. And we should wish him well on all accounts, if his contrition is truly sincere.