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Is Michael Vick due for a big comeback?

It's September 2009 and Michael Vick is out of prison and on the roster of the Philadelphia Eagles. It's time to get beyond the discussion of his crimes and whether the punishment was appropriate. The legal authorities and the leaders of the National Football League have decided that Vick paid an appropriate penalty. So now it's time to ask whether Vick has the skills and drive to resume his successful National Football League career.

The first part of the answer comes from considering how good Vick was when he was in his prime a few years ago on the Atlanta Falcons. On the one hand, Vick was a unique talent. He was able to do things that no other quarterback had done in the history of the game. No QB ran for as many yards, and none has ever been as elusive.

Vick's combination of speed, power, and ability to shift directions made him almost impossible for a single tackler to handle. He truly was special, as evidenced by the two consecutive years when he set league records for rushing yards and touchdown runs by a quarterback.

However, quarterbacks are not measured by how well they run. They are measured by how well they pass the ball and by how well they avoid making turnovers through interceptions and fumbles. On those accounts, Vick was decidedly mediocre throughout his career. Vick's passing statistics are below average for the five years that he was the Falcons' starting quarterback.

Though he has a very powerful arm, he did not master the ability to make accurate, shorter throws that are crucial to moving the ball downfield. Vick's completion percentage of 50-55% was annually among the lowest in the league, and it was only slightly offset by the fact that his passes went for more yards when they were completed. Moreover, an above-average number of Vick's passes were intercepted, primarily because he couldn't resist using his arm strength to try to make difficult throws to receivers who were well-covered by defenders.

And finally, Vick's propensity for running with the ball left him vulnerable to fumbling when he was hit by multiple tacklers. In three of his five primary years, Vick led the league in fumbles.

So now, let's fast-forward to 2009. Vick hasn't played since 2007, and he was not effective in that year. In fact, it was his worst year as a pro since his rookie season. All of his weaknesses as a passer seemed to be highlighted in 2007, as teams dared him to try to beat them with long throws, and Vick took the bait too often.

As he neared 30 years


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