by Ben Evans

Created on: February 10, 2007   Last Updated: April 26, 2007

There are many misconceptions about any potential attack on Iran at the moment, and what I intend to do in this article is not only outline the most likely form that any attack would take, but dismiss other forms.

When analysing this question it is important to put ourselves in the mind of the Bush administration in its current status as it exists at the moment, and compare to the Bush administartion that took America into an invasion of Iraq. Let us outline the differences between that point and this one first, and then we shall have a clearer picture of the question.

Immediatly before the Iraq invasion, America was nervous, to be sure, but its public and media had been whipped up into a warmongering mood ready to do battle against a clear enemy. Billed as part of the war on terror, America had allies (chiefly Britain), public support (70% or even higher in the months up to invasion) political control over one house and a loyal republican party; a weak political opposition that feared a label of disloyalty to country or troops; and a military that had huge spare capacity to fight a war that it had already fought and won 12 years previously in the Gulf war. Bush was jubilant at the faith in him and his government.

The situation now is very different. Although the war against Saddam was won (no one really predicted otherwise) a guerilla was has broken out that the American military is not equipped to fight, and should not be fighting anyway. There is severe overstretch and falling morale. The invasion was marked by incompetence, insensitivity and poor management, more from the civilian administration (in particular Donald Rumsfeld) than from the military leaders. That same incompetence and poor management was highlighted by the US governments response to Hurricane Katrina, among other things, whilst political control of both houses has been lost, and many republican senators are now far more inclined to rebel against the Bush administrations policies. Public approval, around 70% before the war, has now fallen to the record low of 35% amongst American voters.

So Mr. Bush would have his work cut out convincing voters to attack Iran. There is certainly no possibility that he would launch a ground invasion - many articles have highlighted the size of Iran, the fact that it does not have a widely unpopular government and the enormous battle that would then be fought with guerilla forces once an invasion has taken place. Ground invasion is out of the question.

But this

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