by Tom Magill

Created on: February 10, 2007   Last Updated: March 19, 2008

The question is not "will Americans vote..." but "Which Americans will vote...". Firstly, who will vote for a black man? At the moment, the polls show that compared to Saint Hilary, Obama hasn't got a delegate to stand on when it comes to the democratic nomination. But let us not forget 1972, when George McGovern initially looked like a lame duck candidate and Ed Muskie seemed a shoo-in. Muskie's campaign collapsed and McGovern, seemingly against all odds, got the nomination. Granted, when he faced up to Nixon it was McGovern who collapsed, but unlike McGovern the democratic candidate in 2008 will not be facing an incumbent president.

So who will vote for Barack Obama? The obvious answer would be black voters, seeing him as one of their own. Yet, all things considered, that probably won't be the case. Bill Clinton had a very strong bond with the African American population and it's likely that this will continue through the Clinton dynasty. It seems that Obama voters will be, for the most part, white. A lot of them will be stringent liberals who will want to vote for Obama BECAUSE of his colour. They're will be that contingent of voters who want to be seen as "ahead of the curve" and will want everyone to know that they voted for a black man. Paradoxically, this could mean that Obama does better in exit polls than in the actual vote, because there will be some voters who want people to think they voted Obama, but are actually uncomfortable with a black man in the oval office, so lie when asked.

Obama will also attract support because of his fantastic charisma, charm and the fact that he seems like a fresh, young politician. With only two years of senate work behind him, he's got a relatively clean record. Since he didn't have to vote for or against the Iraq war, he's maintained an anti war stance throughout. Clinton on the other hand, initially supported the war, though probably because she was worried about being branded "unpatriotic" and losing her chance of running in '08.

As for the Clinton voters, we've already covered the "Black Vote". I think that there will be a new (or at least, seemingly new, but actually its been around forever) phenomena which I label the "Oprah Vote". As campaigns become so media intensive, with televised debate and appearances by candidates on talk shows high ranking media officials become more powerful. They already have a huge influence in everyday life (think of Oprah's "book of the month") and their backing could make or break

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