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Will Iranian protest be silenced by the government and world community?

the courage of the people is carried out with hanging executions for selected jailed detainees.

World leaders condemned the brutal treatment of the Iranian protesters, at the same time they attempted to avoid meddling in Iran's election affairs. Some leaders statements were mild until the protesters faced brutality in the streets.

Some reports say that more than 1000 protesters have been arrested and detained. It's difficult to say if the accounts on Twitter and Internet blogs are entirely accurate or provide a clear picture of the events in and around Tehran since there is no way to verify them.

What does the protest mean for Iran?

Is a revolution in the making or did we see something quite different than we perceived?

As Stratfor Intelligence pointed out in their early analysis after the presidential election, the protest was huge with tens of thousands, but it was predominantly evident in Tehran. It didn't appear to be an Iranian country wide revolution as some would like to believe and without full support of all Iranian citizenry, the protest had no growth and therefore couldn't develop into a full blown referendum for change.

In the outlying towns and villages of Iran, the lifestyle and ideology are not necessarily on the same level as you find in a modern city the size of Tehran. Many Iranians are of humble means and deeply religious. They like Ahmadinejad for his religious views, his stance on national security, and for speaking against the western culture. Though poor, they probably see Ahmadinejad as a needed leader and a forceful president in difficult times.

The fact that these Iranian citizens didn't join the protests should tell us the protests were mostly isolated and contained.

The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei backs President Ahmadinejad in the election. It was he who demanded a stop to the protests and called out the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to ensure the crushing of the protest movement. It was Ayatollah Khamenei who exerted authority in squashing the protesters.

That's not to say that Khamenei and Ahmadinejad are bosom buddies. They have their differences according to Iranian born analyst, Arif Keskin.

His analysis says there is a rift within the regime that exists between conservatives and reformers and instead of a full blown revolution, Iranians are looking to see an evolution rather than a revolution occur within the regime.

"Iran has seen many rebellions and revolutions since 1890, but it has been unable to reach such aspirations as independence, freedom and justice. Therefore, Iranians are doubtful that they will reach their aspirations through another revolution, so they feel closer to a model within the regime which will evolve slowly and in time...." Arif Keskin, Middle East Analyst

Images from the events in Iran are disturbing and it's distressing to know that so many Iranian people risked their lives and died on the streets of Tehran in an effort that was silenced quickly and effectively. To have the protests end with the government shutting them down with excessive violence and then seeking execution payback, makes us wonder if Iran will move toward democracy or remain indefinitely under the thumb of the Ayatollah and clerics.

The world community waits on the sidelines with little hope of successful dialogue on curbing nuclear weaponry in Iran.

227903_m Learn more about this author, Mona Gallagher.
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