by Allen Alberson

Created on: July 05, 2009   Last Updated: July 13, 2009

With the announcement that British embassy workers will face trial for their alleged part in the Iranian protests, it is obvious that the government in Tehran will try anything to silence the protests. The leadership is trying desperately to hold on to power the only way they know how, with force and threats. The trial is meant to convince the world and it's own people that the protest are the result of "outside agitators." The west has a history of interfering with Iranian politics and if they can sway a portion of the youth of Iran that the US or Britain is involved their job gets that much easier. Just as the west has a history of interfering, Iran's clerics have a history of attacking embassies and holding staff as hostage. The trial will be a sham the only question is will they try to use them as bargaining chips or simply execute them and hope to stir up nationalist fervor to counter balance the protest. This however is a risky action. The world is a much different place than 1976 and information is harder to control. The taking of the "hostages" may have the opposite effect and make the leadership look even more corrupt to the public. The protesters are a strange partnership between moderate young Iranians and some hard line conservative followers of the clerics, so there is a possibility that the government could manage to drive a wedge between the sides. However so far the protest has remained solidified in its belief that the elections were rigged. They have ignored the demands of religious leaders and have continued to take to the street. These trials could be the government's last attempt to stop the demonstrations without a full police and military crackdown.

If the government fully unleashes its forces on the public, the protests could be squashed in a matter of days. The militia and military are too strong for unarmed civilians and an all out war would lead to slaughter. Still there are risks involved for the government. All out war would further destabilize the country. The United States is too tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan to contemplate an invasion, but their government has a fewer of invasion by the west. This has to be on their mind as I am sure many of the clerics do honestly believe the west is behind their current troubles. An all out massacre would look bad on the world stage but Iran has never courted good feelings with the world.

The biggest threat against using military force might be more practical and even a possibility. While

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