North Korea and Iran, along with Iraq, were singled out as America's greatest threats by then President George W. Bush. They were grouped together under the moniker axis of evil in 2002. All three countries were believed to be fostering terrorism and in the process of developing weapons of mass destruction.
Iraq suspected by the American government of having secret weapons sites. The US military launched an invasion of Iraq just a few months after it's inclusion in the "axis." American forces never found any evidence of nuclear weapons or any other WMDs. This left the other two countries as areas of concern. Many people publicly wondered if America had picked the right enemy to attack.
Iran has a nuclear program but they insist that it is for non military purposes. Although there have been doubts about their sincerity, no hard evidence exists that they are near to developing nuclear weapons. North Korea is also known to have reactors however they seem to both deny nuclear weapons, while at the same time threatening to use them on their enemies. While Iraq is still in large part under American influence, if not outright control, the other two nations still harbor deep animosity with the United States. Both pose potential threats to American safety, but which one is the greater threat? Which should be our main theater of concern?
Many might think that Iran would be the greater threat. They are an Islamic country and the government publicly denies Israel's right to exist. There have been veiled threats against the United States and it is almost certain they support resistance groups inside Iraq. Relations with the United States have been cold at best since the Islamic revolution of 1979. Our support of Iraq in the Iran/Iraq war did nothing to better the relationship. Among many people there is an idea that the war on terror is a war between Islam and Christianity and this would seem to proclaim Iran as the greatest threat. This is an over simplification of the facts however. The Islamic world , just like the Western world is split into moderate and conservative factions. Iran has both factions within its borders.
While Iran is an Islamic government effectively ruled by the clerics, the people in general are more moderate than those of many other Middle eastern nations. At one point relations were close but the American government, as so often wit does, backed an unpopular leader for our own reasons. The US government helped place the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in power and supported him as he basically created a dictatorship in Iran. America's involvement in Iran's internal affairs soured it's reputation with the people of in general. The current President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has taken the government farther from the mainstream but a large portion of the younger citizens of Iran seem to want to move more to the center. After the last elections, Iran is in a state of turmoil that it hasn't seen since the Islamic revolution of 1979. People from all sides of the political-religious field in Iran have taken to the streets in protest over election results and the government has increasingly cracked down on the protests, leading to widespread violence. This leads many to hope that Iran might be about to throw off the yokes of dictatorship and make an experiment in democracy. Then again it could be Tiananmen Square all over again. Whatever happens Iran is a very unstable country right now and instability breeds danger. Instability in a nation that possibly has atomic weapons breeds danger on a global scale.
North Korea officially supports freedom of religion, although Buddhism is probably the most widespread and is the only religion to receive government support due to it's part in traditional Korean culture. Christianity exists and is said to be growing but it faces persecution by the communist state. Not being an Islamic state might lead some to define it as less of a threat. Like I mentioned earlier though, the problems facing America are not nearly as cut and dried as Islam versus Christianity. North Korea is basically an artificial state, forced into existence by the partition of Korea after the Korean War. The War ended in 1953 but officially both North and South are still at war. Peace is uneasy at best along the border and the government of North Korea still harbors great hatred of the United States which it does not try and hide. In the last several years the leadership under Kim Jong-il has issued statements threatening America and have publicly admitted to enriching Uranium. It is believed they may already have some nuclear weapons although this has never been proven. In May of 2009 they unilaterally withdrew from the armistice agreement that ended conflict. While this could, and most probably is, just another attempt to blackmail the world into meeting it's demands, it could also be a first step toward renewed hostility against South Korea.
So which country is the bigger threat? Both have nuclear programs, both have publicly made threats against the United States and both have a history of animosity with America. It is clear that the Middle East is extremely volatile and violence could escalate at any time, Iran's leaders while dogmatic and loud at least seem sane. Kim Jong-il has shown questionable mental faculties at times and it is unclear if he is even still in charge. The people surrounding him seem little different. There are no free elections in North Korea and very little hope for change in the near future. Iran does have elections even though he has less power than Korea's leader. He does have some power in setting the course of the country however. Plus the climate in Iran looks like it might be ripe for change. With America reaching out to the Islamic world anything is possible. We can see no similar signs of change in Korea.
All we see out of Korea are threats. North Korea is a country that continues to antagonize the world while its people starve. It has been said that full bellies breed complacency and there is some hope that someday the people might be fed up ( no pun intended) and take action. But for now the government rules with an iron fist and revolution looks years away. So who is the greater threat?
When I look at Iran I see a country with great potential. A country rich in natural resources and a people who historically were once close to the United States. Iran is a county that could end up being a model for democracy in the Middle East. They have shown a willingness to negotiate with the world on their nuclear ambitions. Most of all I think they realize a confrontation with the United States would not be a good thing. It might be crippling to America but it would be devastating to Iran as well.
When I look at North Korea, I see insanity. They have ordered nuclear inspectors out of their country and re opened reactors they had earlier agreed to shut down. They seek world attention by threats and accusations. The country claims to want to negotiate but only on their terms, which continually change. What is most scary is that they seem to have no fear of igniting conflict with the United States or other Western nations. They cannot feed their own population and have allegedly resorted to drug trafficking and weapon sales in the past to support their economy. Would they hesitate to sell enriched Uranium to the highest bidder? With a rocket delivery system would they feel secure to attempt an invasion of South Korea? If they had the technology would a dying Kim Jung-il possibly order a missile strike on the American mainland as a final gift to the world? The leadership seems dangerously out of touch with reality and I would not rule out any possible form of aggression.
I see potential danger in both Iran and North Korea. Both countries have deep differences with America and both have the possibility of developing nuclear weapons. Either one could possibly be a broker of weapons grade Uranium to terrorist groups. However while Iran looks like it has a chance to emerge as a new nation, North Korea's future looks more bleak. With no change in leadership or direction in sight, the tensions there look to only spiral further downward in the near future