This last week President Obama released details of the new US fuel-economy standards required for vehicles. I have perused an article about it by Henry Pulizzi in the Wall St Journal (20 May 2009) It has got me wondering whether or not the US car industry is being pushed by Federal Government onto the right track to establish future prosperity for the industry, which is dependent on US consumer approval.
Apparently car makers (the Big 3) say they will produce more hybrids and diesel-powered cars. Cars will be smaller, lighter, with more aluminum parts and be more fuel efficient. At the target year of 2016, according to the new rules, cars should use on average 6.0 liters/100kms (now 8.6) and SUVs 7.8 liters/100kms (now 10.2). This represents up to 30% improvement in fuel efficiency, assuming all other things are equal, which they are not.
There is a fixed amount of energy that can be derived from a liter of fuel. The easiest way of improving fuel efficiency is to make the car smaller and lighter. By doing so the car becomes more dangerous to the occupants in an accident (higher insurance premiums), less able or unsuitable to tow boats and trailers, and uncomfortable for long distance driving, which means in the US at least, decreased consumer appeal. Why should the Government be telling us what sort of car we have to drive?
The reasoning behind this move seems to be twofold. Hovering over all this Government (Democrat) decision and policy making is a Green cloud of Utopian environmentalism, such as is promoted by Al Gore. According to their belief system, oil supplies are running short thus causing fuel price rises. The greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels are polluting the atmosphere thus causing serious global warming. Therefore we must make radical changes to our life style.
We must reduce our fuel consumption and become more energy independent.
We must stop polluting the atmosphere with CO2 and so save the world from global warming.
Is this the right way to go? I don't think so. It is the pathway to economic disaster and towards an undesirable lower standard of living for the populace, with unknown political consequences.
None of these Green fears stand up to scrutiny. Energy is not in short supply. Only our ability to develop it has taken a battering by the Green Movement. The world is not coming to an end due to global warming, but rather the opposite, global cooling is more likely in the future. Atmospheric CO2 is not a pollutant but a vital trace component for the biosphere and is beneficial to mankind. There is no reason for the Government to force on us this major change in life style.
So what should we be doing?
The supply of transport fuels over the next 100 years, in my opinion, will be very predominantly hydrocarbons derived from fossil fuels, as it has been for the last 100 years. By the year 2100 our cars will still run on gasoline, diesel and autogas (propane), which are the only fuels that at present have a nationwide network of distribution points.
There is not much point in developing a hydrogen fueled car, or even a methane (natural gas) fueled car when there is no nationwide system of distribution, and there is no economic reason to do this when these other cheaper fuels are readily available. Electric cars have a niche area of use within large cities and their development is encouraging. Hybrids are in the same category and we watch their technological development with interest.
Where are these transport fuels coming from?
From petroleum refining and processing we get our gasoline, kerosene, diesel and heating oils. From natural gas fields we get our heating gas (industrial and domestic), distillate (LPG) and sometimes a helium byproduct. The huge US reserves of oil, coal and natural gas are only now being looked at again and hopefully developed once the decades of Green shackles preventing this development have been broken.
Slowly, and concurrent with this will be the production of synthetic hydrocarbon fuels when the price is right. The source materials will be coal and natural gas of which there are reserves lasting 100s of years. It has all been done in the past in other countries when it was necessary to do so, either due to war, trade embargoes or oil price shocks.
We don't have to worry about the supply of transport fuels for at least 100 years. Also, the price of gasoline today in real money terms is less than what it was 20 years ago.
We don't have to produce small fuel efficient cars. Who wants them in the US? You can always buy an imported small car for city driving if need be.
We don't have to worry about CO2 emissions because CO2 gas is wholly beneficial to the environment. It is good stuff and the plants and crops love it!
In summary, the world is not coming to an end. Be happy and optimistic! Let's get the State and Federal Governments out of the way of sensible economic development by the private sector and so allow us to enjoy the resources God has given us!