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Time to invest in oil companies?

Close to a year has passed since we watched the price of oil hit its highest point in our nations history, peaking in July of 2008 at almost $150.00 per barrel. Americas love affair, for a short time anyway, was all but over. Pump prices soared and almost instantly our top priority was fuel conservation. Americans quickly reorganized their driving habits and most trips had to be logistically planned. The smart consumer was relying as little on gas as possible, and the smart investor was getting rich.



While oil prices were quickly climbing, so were the share prices of the companies that brought that oil to the consumer, and shareholders were selling. Trade volume for most of the established oil companies doubled and sometimes tripled between 2007 and 2009.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) is a $337 B. oil exploration and production company. Through their several divisions they manufacture, transport, and sell a wide variety of specialty petroleum products. Between the years 1982 and 2004 Exxon Mobil's share price never closed above $48.00. In the height of the oil crisis their share price reached a high of over $96.00. Since the re-tracement of oil, Exxon's share is back below $70.00

Conoco Phillips (COP) A $66 B. Oil and energy company. Their share price saw the same kind of gains during the run up of oil. Between 1992 and 2004 Conoco Phillip's share price never reached $40.00. In June 2008 their share price was over $95.00. Today it is back below $45.00.

These are just two of the major oil players listed and trading on the American stock markets. While comparing the long term stock charts of all of the large oil companies and a dozen smaller oil companies, I found that most of their chart patterns looked almost identical to the monthly crude oil chart.

By mid summer 2008 Americans had dramatically reduced oil usage and demand began to shrink while reserves grew. This reversal of supply and demand brought the price of oil down abruptly. Oil prices fell more drastically than the previous climb. Unfortunately this left allot of investors, previously buying on the ride up , holding the bag of extremely devalued oil shares after such a swift decline.

By the end of 2008 oil had fallen back to around $23 per barrel, and had been riding a price channel between a comfortable $30 and $55 dollars per barrel until the recent rise of violence in Nigeria.

The Nigerian governments joint task force(JTF) Is waging a battle against militant groups in the Niger Delta petroleum region. This escalation in violence is leading to speculation that oil supplies from the fifth largest oil producer in OPEC could be stopped. The fighting, along with a few other large oil producing companies, being tried for alleged human rights violations in Indonesia and jungle pollution in Ecuador could account for the recent spike in oil prices to above $62 per barrel.

Baron Rothschild, an 18th-century British nobleman once said "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.". With the economy dragging bottom and the unprecedented rise of violence, I think that in my lifetime, the streets have never been so bloody.

Learn more about this author, Bill Ritter.
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