by Gary Charles Berliner

Created on: May 02, 2009   Last Updated: May 10, 2009

Is the current "Mexican" swine flu a dangerous super bug destined to become a global pandemic illness, sweeping through the world and killing 55 millions of people like it's 1918 cousin? The short answer is no! Not likely! In examining the reasons for this muted response, which flies in the face of popular media hype, it is useful to contrast the epidemiology, and viral disease characteristics of the yearly "seasonal flu", with those seen in this current off-season outbreak of swine flu.

Each year between October and March from 22 - 45 thousand people in the United States die of complications from the usual "seasonal" flu. Most of these do not succumb to the direct effects of the influenza virus, but rather they die from sepsis and respiratory failure due to secondary bacterial pneumonia, which follows the congestion and debilitation of the primary flu illness. Enough people die to depopulate a small city. That is why the vaccine is so necessary for the most susceptible in our population (the old, the very young, & the debilitated), and is recommended for the general population - it is the primary preventive medicine for Influenza. Once acquiring Influenza it becomes a matter of individual constitution, condition, access to care, and treatment modalities which determine the degree of morbidity and mortality for cases.

A novel vaccine is developed annually, which covers several of the most likely extrapolated viral Influenza antigens predicted to be extant in that years upcoming "seasonal" flu. In most years this vaccine effectively confers immunity to the circulating "easonal" strain. For those who do not receive the vaccination, there are a variety of anti-viral medications which may work to a variable degree on that year's flu, depending on its strain's resistance profile. Analgesics, antipyretics, antihistamines, decongestants, and antitussives are frequently used to mediate influenza symptoms. Antibiotics are often administered to prevent or treat secondary bacterial pulmonary infections and pneumonia.

The current "Mexican" swine flu is an off season variation whose genetics appear to be a recombination of avian, human, and swine flus. NO vaccine for the "Mexican" swine flu presently exists although efforts are underway to rapidly produce one. There is also NO effective rapid swab test available. Those who have had multiple vaccinations for "seasonal" influenza over the many years since the 1976 swine flu vaccine, MAY have some conferred resistance,

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