With the drug wars in Mexico getting more and more difficult to win, and the claims that Mexico is getting over 90% of its firearms from the United states, there has been a lot of discussion as to whether an assault weapons ban similar to the one enacted during the Clinton administration should be brought into play. To properly answer that question we should first look at the facts as they are, not as they are commonly portrayed in the media.
The 90% statistic stated on many of the news shows and in newspapers is deceptive. What it actually states is that 90% of the firearms sent to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (BATFE) that are able to be traced are, in fact, traced to the United States. What this statistic fails to mention is that a large percentage of the weapons recovered by the Mexican Government are not sent to the BATFE for tracing because they either possess markings that make it obvious that the weapons do not originate in the United States or they do not have the markings necessary in order to do an accurate trace, such as a weapon with the serial numbers filed off or missing completely.
In 2007 and 2008, according to the Mexican government, approximately 29,000 guns were recovered at various crime scenes. Of these guns, according to BATFE officials, approximately 11,000 firearms were sent to the BATFE for tracing and identification. Of these 11,000 firearms, approximately 6,000 were successfully traced and of those 6,000, BATFE Assistant Director for Field Operations William Hoover testified to Congress that 5,114, or roughly 90%, were traced to the United States.
If we were to convert these numbers to a percentage scale, it would say that of all the guns recovered in Mexico, roughly 68% were never sent to the US for tracing and of the 32% sent here, less than half of those were eventually traced to have US origin. That all boils down to over 80% of the firearms recovered in Mexico in 2007 and 2008 having origins of somewhere other than the United States.
With those statistics now available, the question becomes, "Where is Mexico getting the all of those guns if not from the United States?", and the short answer to that question is the black market. The black market is filled with weapons from Central and South America, China, South Korea and many former Soviet Bloc manufacturers. These weapons include fully automatic rifles, heavy machine guns, grenades, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and other explosives that can't be found in gun stores or gun shows here in the US. Another resource for illegal weapons is, according to Interpol, arms dealers from the Russian Mafia, many of whom are selling weapons in exchange for drugs to sell in Russia. Some of the drug cartels are even manufacturing their own weapons.
Another surprising statistic to take into account is, according to Mexican Congressman Robert Badillo, over the past six years over 150,000 Mexican Army soldiers have deserted and many of them took their army-issued weapons with them. That is a lot of fully automatic weapons potentially making their way into the hands of drug dealers.
So, when the mainstream media states that 90% of the weapons in Mexico are coming from the United States when in reality under 20% of the weapons are coming from the US, its much like saying that if your child borrowed your car and got into an accident that 100% of known car accidents are caused by your child in your car. Of course, it has always been much easier for people to use sound bites with alarming statistics, ignoring any and all evidence to the contrary, than to take a step back and look at the facts as they are.
Even President Obama stated to the President of Mexico that bringing back the assault weapons ban, which only prohibited sales of semiautomatic weapons that had certain combinations of military style features including folding stocks, high capacity magazines, flash suppressors, pistol grips, and the ability to attach a bayonet, is the wrong course of action. Also, many members of Congress, including many Democrats, have vowed to vehemently oppose any revival of the assault weapons ban.
With all that information, it brings us back to the question posed in the title. Should Mexico be asking the US to ban assault weapons? President Obama thinks it is the wrong way to go. Much of Congress have stated that they will not allow it to be revived. The facts are showing that, given the small percentage of guns coming from the US, bringing back the assault weapons ban would more than likely have little effect on gun crime in Mexico. So, when all is said and done, even if Mexico is asking the US to ban assault weapons, the answer is most likely to be no.