by Dick Stewart

Created on: April 20, 2009

You may not want to hear it, but it's not a "whether" question, but a "when" question, like the Big One we all know is coming to California. If there is a ground transportation system in the future, the choice for powering it will eventually have been reduced to one: electricity.

Oil production capacity will peak around 2026. Competition from food production, and fresh water issues mean that biofuels will only provide a fraction of our needs. We may need it all to power aircraft, which can't stop every few hundred miles to get a fresh battery. How the transition to electric vehicles figures into this scenario depends on too many factors to permit reliable predictions, but recent developments in the most critical areas point seem encouraging.

The Chicken and the Egg: Would you buy a TV if you had to take it back to the store to have its battery recharged twice a day? If you were an investor, would you commit huge amounts of capital to the development of a network of, say, echidna feed stores if no one currently raised echidnas? That's one kind of dilemma that faces the future of electric vehicles before they can become mainstream. You can buy a commuter electric for a second car now, but few people will buy an electric as their only car if they can't use it the way they use their current car - driving where they want, when they want, without fear of being stranded for want of "fuel."

At the same time it's a huge challenge convincing conservative investors to fund battery exchange stations, curb-side recharging outlets, and high-voltage high-amperage charging stations in private homes. It's already begun, though. Gradually for now, and with many a false step yet to be taken, but inexorably the change is coming. In the California Bay Area, Israel, and in Denmark, regional communities are partnering with industry to provide networks of urban recharging stations, on a subscription basis, or pay-as-you-charge, like a parking meter.

Hyatt Hotels has committed to a demonstration project installing 70-amp 240 volt auto recharging stations at a few hotels. Meanwhile, electric vehicles are evolving from the film-lot shuttle image into cars like the Tesla S, a sedan with up to 300 mile range, 5-minute exchangeable battery, and style and comfort to compete with the other $50,000+ cars in its class. A compact car is in the works.

Others, like Fisker are in the hunt. AC Propulsion Systems provides the conversions for several current car models, and BMW can't provide enough examples

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