by Tab Julius

Created on: April 10, 2009

"Does North Korea's missile test represent a real threat to the United States?"

I would argue that it doesn't, at least not directly. Indirectly, yes, because any instability in that area affects our interests, but I doubt they are going to be lobbing missiles at the United States. To be literal about it, an actual test isn't a threat, but the acquired ability to create a nuclear weapon and deliver it on target would be.

North Korea doesn't have a terrific track record technically. They will not only need to make a bomb go boom, but then they have to deliver that boom. Neither is a trivial challenge, however they are not idiots and if they persevere, they will ultimately figure out both issues.

The other real question would be WHY they would attack the United States. If they sent a missle all the way over here, it better have a nuclear warhead on it, because if it didn't, they'd be inviting some serious military repercussions for not a lot of - excuse the pun - bang for their buck. And if it DID have a nuclear warhead on it, not only would they likely incur worldwide wrath (although they might not care) but they would also be risking effective destruction of their country. There is a difference between aggressiveness and total idiocy.

I would suggest that if they were going to fire a missile, they might prefer to choose from any number of closer targets that pose less of a danger than we would in response. Certainly any nation will be inclined to respond, and North Korea does have the rough backing of China, but few countries really want to start a fight that will effectively mean the end of their country.

One problem is that North Korea is an extremely insular community. Our number of human intelligence sources within North Korea is not particularly high. In addition, economic leverage against North Korea is scant. North Korea no longer gets significant resources from Russia, given the fall of the Soviet Union, thus being limited to assistance from China, and to a lesser degree, relations with Vietnam, Laos, and the like. The main carrot right now is fuel assistance, which it gets from South Korea in return for certain actions (mainly, curtailing its nuclear program). Nevertheless, both North and South Korea claim ownership of the Korean peninsula, and are officially at war, so if any country has a reason to be nervous, it would be South Korea. Of course, an attack on South Korea would potentially draw us into a war, although like the Cold War, we would treat the issue very carefully because it would not effectively be between North and South Korea, but between the United States and China. China, however, is probably reluctant to bomb its largest trading partner (and investment properties) so any standoff would be one of tense diplomatic relations.

In summary, no, I don't think we are directly threatened by North Korea's missile program. I suspect they are looking for a measure of respect from the international community, if only earned by fear. I suspect they have an inferiority complex (or, more specifically, Kim Jong-Il and Premier Kim Yong-Il, who effectively are the Korean equivalents of Fidel Castro). To further buttress to my argument, North Korea does have the fourth largest military in the world, and they haven't marched across the border into Seoul yet, which is another reason I think they're maybe trying to acquire the technology, but don't have any immediate plans to use it, other than to get other countries to pay attention to them.

Learn more about this author, Tab Julius.
Click here to send this author comments or questions.