by Ian Buchanan

Created on: April 02, 2009

It doesn't matter whether you're a one person business or General Motors, there always comes a time when the future needs to be evaluated. Nobody is surprised when this happens during a recession because the circumstances of the economy will change the very assumptions the business is run on. It's impossible to ignore what's happening to your customers, your suppliers, your employees, or the community you're operating in, so nimbleness is required to remain ahead of the onslaught of bad news. In the current recession the future is unclear for most companies, at least as far as following the once crystal clear business plan is concerned, so the fundamental decision every company must make is to reevaluate every fiber of its being to plot a safer course going forward.

Concepts are born and concepts die in troubled times. We hear that while one door may close another may open, but that depends on the degree of realism we apply to our own corporate world. We've just seen how GM has been confronted because their so called restructuring plan chose to ignore the basic reality of their problem. Their future is indeed unclear, but that's only because they haven't grasped that the consumer has a vastly different view of what their future transportation will look like.

It's no different at the paint store. Old Joe has to always had a good stock, and an eye for mixing, but Pittsburg
has just opened a store down the block, and they can't just beat Joe's prices, they've got all the latest technology for mixing that the modern consumer needs to get that perfect match. The old guy's future business is not just unclear; it's dead and gone for ever. Similarly, if your business has been making neckties the future is unclear.

There are companies that manage to breathe life into tired products. Take the transformation of boring old PJs into preppy lounge wear. Then the concept of the aircraft circular life boat: not a huge market, but turn it upside down and it makes a great trampoline on the lake, and now they've morphed into a whole range of water toys.

These innovative interpretations come from companies that understand the future is not about replicating the past; it's about recognizing that the future is always unclear and using that knowledge is the underlying principle to keep the company viable. Change is now exponential so "unclear" defines everything more than six months into the future.

Get used to it; it's the only way to have even a modicum of clarity going forward. Heavens, next someone is going to suggest airplanes fly on bio fuel. Oops, it's already being type trialed, but its future is unclear!

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