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2009 NCAA men's basketball tournament: Preview and prognostic

by Roy Loomis

Created on: March 18, 2009

Now that the field has been set for the 2099 NCAA men's basketball tournament and March Madness has officially begun, it's time for people everywhere to start filling out their brackets. Whether you have a chance at winning the office pool or just bragging rights among friends, you want yours to be the best. Chances are that your bracket is not going to look too different than a lot of others. As a rule, you're going to pick the high seeds to advance. By and large, you should. However, what you need to do to differentiate your bracket, and to have the best in your pool, is to pick a few upsets and sleepers to get the points that not many others are getting.

There is a lot of parity in college basketball this year. Further, we've seen the ACC and Big East be the two truly dominant conferences and I expect their battle-tested teams to be successful this year. My first rule of thumb is to look for teams from these conferences to advance.

Looking first to the Midwest bracket, and to the Big East, I like West Virginia as a sleeper to advance to the Sweet 16 if not Elite 8. They have potential matchups versus solid, yet beatable teams: Kansas and Michigan St. Both of these squads can be erratic and if West Virginia comes to play, they can certainly win these games. While many doubted that Arizona should be in the tourney, now that they are in, they stand a good chance to beat Utah in the first round, but would have serious trouble with Wake Forest.

In the East, I see a few potential first round upsets with talented teams like Minnesota and Virginia Commonwealth matching up well against their opponents. However, I don't see any cinderellas here. Villanova would match up well against Duke in the Sweet 16 and if this mathcup happens, the Wildcats should be able to upset the higher seeded Blue Devils.

The West is the bracke most poised for upsets and some interesting action. First off, Missouri, a 3 seed is dangerous and could very well go to the Final Four. While everyone is talking about how strong Memphis is as a 2 seed, Missouri matches up extremely well with them and plays the same kind of game - just more efficiently. I love Missouri as a Final Four sleeper and a surprise Elite 8 lock. Going back to the strength of the ACC, Maryland should be able to knock off Cal in the first round. Purdue is also a dangerous team. They could give UConn a battle and I like them to breeze to the Sweet 16 as a 5 seed.

There are a couple of teams to look out for in the South region: Western Kentucky and Clemson. Western Kentucky had a nice run last year and looks poised to repeat. With a lot of talent and tournament experience, I would not be surprised to see them knock off both Illinois and Gonzaga and make the Sweet 16. Clemson, while erratic, can hang with anyone when the show up. They can out run Oklahoma, a 2 seed in the second round. While this is no lock, you might look like the smartest one in your pool when you pick the Tigers into the Sweet 16.

While you don't want to have a bracket riddled with upsets and sleepers, you know that there will be several. Getting even a few of these right can make the difference between winning your pool or finishing in the middle of the pack. Good luck!

Learn more about this author, Roy Loomis.
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