by Jay Nolan

Created on: January 27, 2007   Last Updated: June 26, 2011

Does Barry Bonds belong in the Hall of Fame? A debate that may last longer than the brick and mortar holding up the hallowed halls in Cooperstown. I believe statistics speak louder than words. And based on the thousands of players who have picked up a bat over the last 125 years, we have a pretty good idea of what happens to a player as he ages.

Let's have a look at the evidence. There is no failed drug test. Bonds is physically much larger and more massive than when he was on the Pirates. Based on his physical appearance and increase in stats, is that enough to deny him a plaque in the Hall of Fame? Bonds was headed to Cooperstown prior to the 2000 season. He had hit a lot of home runs, drove in a ton of RBIs, and was a tremendous base stealer. He won three MVP awards and eight Gold Gloves.

Barry turned 36 in 2000. Most players are on the decline at that age because of the physical pounding a professional career takes on the body. Compare Barry's statistics after his 36th birthday against Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Babe Ruth. It's only logical to compare their numbers, since his name is being mentioned with theirs all the time.

Mays dropped considerably. You can draw a line after the 1966 season and see his career was on the decline. Aaron had one more big year, as did Ruth, then you can draw a line after they were 37. Sure, they had some decent years after, but not on the level that made them legends. And they surely didn't win any single-season titles.

I can see by looking at the career stats of these three greats that their legs were shot. Stolen base totals, hits, games played, and their overall offensive output - as compared to their younger years, all dropped significantly. They began playing first base and hanging onto their greatness.

Bonds' stats look reversed. Draw the same line under the 2000 season and you will see why. He won four consecutive MVPs, two batting titles, and in the 14 seasons prior had only hit over 40 home runs three times. Suddenly he hit 73 home runs in 2001 and averaged over 45 homers a year in the other four seasons. Why the huge increases? This is where the action part of my argument comes into focus.

Why is he the only one that seemed to defy time and get better as his body should have been breaking down? After winning eight Gold Gloves and being in the top 10 in stolen bases seven times during the 90s, he became this power hitter who hit for high average. Only Madonna gets to recreate herself in such a way.

After Barry Bonds retires from baseball, the writers will be the first to look into their collective conscience and decide, without conclusive proof, whether Barry used performance-enhancing drugs to cheat. If they choose not to elect him to the Hall of Fame, it will be up to the Veterans' Committee. By that time, some 20 years down the road, will his peers vote him in? They will have that valuable bit of knowledge the rest of us do not. They will know what happened behind closed doors. But like Kennedy's sealed file, we will have to wait a good long time to see the truth.

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