by Wesley Deans

Created on: March 05, 2009

"One in a million." "So you're tellin me there's a chance!" (Dumb and Dumber)

They say lightning never strikes the same spot twice. Even that event may be more likely than a young player making it into the NBA. When you take a look at just how few players enter the pros you almost become astounded. With so many players going to extreme lengths to get into the league, it makes for fierce competition.

Considering that there are 30 NBA teams with 12 roster spots each that makes for 360 NBA players in the league at one time. 360 employees have the opportunity to compete at the highest level of basketball. A pro career would have to be one of the least secure jobs on the market. If a star player such as Kobe Bryant gets injured, of course the Lakers are willing to wait out the injury and allow for his return. What about when a marginal journeyman player gets injured? He may be quickly cut in favor of a hungrier and healthier player.

College Division I basketball has over 300 teams, each with roughly 12 players. This means that from the college ranks alone there are over 3600 players vying for an NBA spot. If you calculate the odds and for the sake of ease, assumed that all players were of equal talent, it would mean a player would have a .1% chance of making an NBA roster. .1%, that is a ridiculous probability. A person would almost be better suited hitting the slots.

My calculations do not account for the fact that there are multiple divisions of college basketball. Add that to the host of European and International leagues that exist. There are literally thousands of athletes trying to enter a league that can only allow 360 employees.

The skills you must have to make it as an NBA pro can be nothing short of phenomenal. Some of the greatest players that ever played college basketball could not make it as a pro. For example, Mateen Cleaves was one of the great all-Americans to ever play at Michigan State and led to the 2000 national championship. Unfortunately his college success did not translate into an effective pro career. After averaging a mere 5.4 points per game he journeyed to various teams for several seasons before being cut and relegated to the D-league. It is hard to imagine that even a 3-time All-American could have such difficulty succeeding in a sport he had clearly dominated for most of his life.

Despite the great difficulty of making it in the NBA, I applaud those who continue to strive for NBA glory. It is a dream, which is possible for a select few to achieve. Like any great goal it takes talent, hard work, and a dose of good fortune. The difficulty of success is what makes the NBA such a great league. Only the best are able to handle the adversity of such a competitive career.

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