by Craig Williamson

Created on: February 20, 2009   Last Updated: June 19, 2009

The Canadian election of 2008 in some ways felt like a repeat of the 2006 and 2004 elections, in fact all three of these early elections produced minority governments, but under the surface a great deal has been shifting.

One of the biggest shifts is that the separatist Bloc Quebecois was only able to hold on to most of it's support by spending nearly the entire campaign accusing Prime Minister Stephen Harper of being a proxy of George Bush, who is more unpopular in Quebec than in any other part of the country. The strategy nearly fell on it's face, but for the fact that Harper's Conservatives underestimated the effect that arts funding cuts would have on Quebec voters. Gilles Duceppe's Bloc was able to scratch out enough support to hold most of their seats, but if Harper had have had a better Quebec strategy, we could be looking at something much different now. The shift in Quebec is ongoing, but that support is bleeding to Michael Ignatieff's Liberals rather than to the governing Conservatives.

Elsewhere, last year's election revealed other changes occurring. The NDP won a seat in Alberta for only the second time in it's history, and they finished better in their old heartland of Saskatchewan than what they had in years. Saskatchewan's riding distribution has made the urban/rural split difficult for the NDP to overcome in that province. There are several ridings where the number of urban NDP voters should be enough to win a seat, but in Saskatchewan, the population trends have resulted in a province with no seat urban enough for the NDP to win.

The Conservatives were able to increase their support and visibility among ethnic voters in urban and suburban ridings. This likely assisted some of their candidates in winning, but it also could indicate that in the next election the Conservatives may be able to compete in ridings where they have not been competetive. The Liberals for their part were reduced to historic lows. Since the election, they have recovered to a great degree but it remains to be seen how that will play out after Ignatieff spends a bit more time as Liberal leader. The significance of the last election will probably be seen most in it's effect on the governing Conservatives. Stephen Harper's team failed to meet expectations in the last campaign; suffering from many missteps and miscalculations.

The Liberals were unable to hold on to a number of their previously strong seats, the NDP ran an excellent campaign but was only able to increase it's support by a rounding error, and the Bloc slipped back as well. As for the Green party, they set a new record for the most votes going to waste. We have to go back to the Social Credit Party in the 1970's for the previous record.

None of the parties can really be considered winners in the last election. It was an election which few Canadians wanted, it produced few visible changes, but under the surface it revealed some major movements in the West, among ethnic communities and most importantly in Quebec.

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