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Super Bowl XLIII predictions

by Joshua Horn

Created on: January 22, 2009   Last Updated: February 11, 2009

With a 9-7 record in arguably the weakest division in the NFL, it's a surprise that the Arizona Cardinals were able to be successful in the playoffs against the best teams in the NFC. They found success by creating turnovers and effectively running the ball, both of which they were unable to do during the regular season. They have also found incredible success passing deep to their all-star receiving core, led by Larry Fitzgerald. But the Steelers have played consistently throughout the year and into the playoffs, winning through defense and a solid running game. Considering all of this and the AFC's general dominance in recent years in both the Super Bowl and during regular season play, it's probably a safe bet that the Pittsburgh Steelers are a better team and more likely to win the Super Bowl.

The most important asset for the Steelers is their defense. Their rush defense was ranked #1 in the regular season and their pass defense was ranked #2 (based on yards per game). Their pass rush was disruptive throughout the season, sacking opposing quarterbacks 51 times (second only to the Cowboys). This trend has continued with 7 sacks in the postseason.

With the Cardinals seeing a renaissance in their rushing game, it might come down to the Steelers defense to keep the Cardinals one dimensional. Unfortunately for the Steelers, throwing the ball is the best thing the Cardinals can do (ranked #2 in regular season). In this instance, the game could come down to the pressure that Pittsburgh can bring to Kurt Warner. In the NFC Championship Game, the Eagles showed that with pressure, Warner can be forced to throw more erratically, weakening Arizona's high flying offense.

One of the things to keep in mind is the quality of opponents for each of these teams. Pittsburgh had to defeat a powerful defense in Baltimore and a red hot team, much like the Cardinals, in the San Diego Chargers. The Cardinals, on the other hand, defeated the sputtering but lucky Philadelphia Eagles, The AFC has been consistently more dominant this season and Pittsburgh's general success should weigh heavily in its favor.

When assessing the merits of both teams, the most difficult thing to consider is how well the Cardinals have played in the postseason. Throughout the regular season, they were mediocre at best, so it's easy to say that the Steelers are clearly the better team. But Arizona has rushed the ball with great success throughout the playoffs (111 yds per game) and they have created many turnovers. With 8 interceptions and 4 recovered fumbles, the Cardinals have created opportunities for victory by changing the pace of the game and maintaining control. If the Steelers can play a conservative game, relying on their rushing game (108.5 yds per game in the playoffs) and their incredible defense, they will likely come out of the game with a victory.

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