by Sina

Created on: January 19, 2009

Calculating Iran's threat to the United States is an interesting calculus because in one security analysis they aren't a threat at all and in other the Iranians are the clear and present danger. The Iranians aren't a direct threat to domestic or homeland but in terms of United State's policies in the realms of the Middle East and energy policy they are a force to be dealt with. Thus while Iran is not a physical threat to the homeland, it is a threat to American foreign policy interests. But the reality is foreign policy interests of a nation can not be separated from the domestic, thus even though Iran presents no threat physically to the domestic environment of the United States, the Iranians are still a threat in terms of foreign policy.

The United State's interests in the Middle East have always been centered around the providing support to Israel and securing supply and delivery of oil. During the Cold War the United States strategy centered around selling arms to Israel to counterbalance the Soviet supported Arab countries like Syria, Iraq, and Egypt. Economically, the United States supported both the Kingdom in Saudi Arabia and the Shah in Iran for oil. The United States preferred Iran over Saudi Arabia due to Iran's stronger support of Israel against the Arabs. Accordingly the United States gave more money to the Shah to modernize Iran and buy weapons for it military and intelligence services. It was a good and very successful system of affairs until 1979.

Nineteen seventy nine is the year that the landscape of the Middle East changed significantly, consequently forcing the United States to change its calculus regarding Iran. The Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was brought to power following the Iranian Revolution. From this point Iran's outward identity and policy become one that was explicitly revolutionary and opposed to the United States and their interests, including Israel. The United States responded by cutting off all contacts with the Iranians. The following year Saddam Hussein's Iraq invaded Iran and the United States armed the Iraqi side of the conflict. The Iranians responded, in 1983-1984, with a series of terrorist attacks in Lebanon. Furthermore, Iran supported the increasingly radicalized Shia communities culminating in the formation of Hezbollah. At the end of the eighties, Iran is forced to accept a, in Iranian eyes, humiliating truce with the Iraqis.

The Ayatollah Khomeini dies in 1989 and Ali Khamenei becomes the new Supreme Leader of Iran.

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