by David Moglen

Created on: January 19, 2009   Last Updated: January 27, 2009

As of the National Bureau of Economic Research's formal announcement in December 2008 that the recession began twelve months prior, job seekers have been on official notice that it's not just the employment data that is bad; the whole economy is declining. One question seems more prescient than ever for the laboring middle-class as the downturn threatens historic cuts: are there any recession-proof jobs?

First it might help to identify the economic terms and concepts we are actually talking about here when we say recession-proof. Such workers must be in an industry that is "countercyclical"; that is, when the economy is down, their industry is up.

Stocks have an important financial indicator called their "beta," which equals one if the stock mimics the market, and less than one and even negative as the stock resists the direction of the whole stock market. Even an "acyclical" industry (with a beta of 0 not affected at all by the broader economy's business cycle) is a good find, and a defensive investment.

So the real question is what are the countercyclical industries, because the jobs are there. Also one has to recognize that such analyses tend to present a generalized view of typical recessions. There are unique aspects to this recession that adjust the job outlook.

A general recessionary employment expectation would be that the bright industries are the vices: gambling, guns, alcohol, cigarettes. "Inferior goods" retailers do well, like Wal-Mart, Target, K-Mart, and Ross. Fast food restaurants are also relied on instead of pricier dining.

In the current recessionary environment, the beneficiaries already are bankruptcy attorneys, attorneys specializing in home mortgage renegotiation, and their surrogate specialists, often entrepreneurs teaming with a figurehead lawyer. Most of us can't snap up that law degree and take advantage, but those laid off by the real estate industry should look out for jobs in foreclosure counseling and mortgage restructuring.

With our aging population, the main consistent engine of job growth for years already has been the health industry, from hospital jobs which can be very menial all the way to surgeons, to say nothing of pharmaceutical research and pharmacists, in-home care, and nursing home staffing. And these job opportunities will swell further as the Baby Boomer generation continues to retire. So some sharp job seekers will capitalize on this demographic swell.

Skill certificates in computers or something equally marketable will burnish your resume. In recessions, many return to school. If you do enter the job market, you might start with the government. Subscribe to the public sector journal called "Jobs Available" and apply to those well-paying, benefited jobs which will increase in the near future with a stimulus and infrastructure package in the offing.

Learn more about this author, David Moglen.
Click here to send this author comments or questions.