by Joseph Whalen

Created on: January 14, 2009

Bestowing the responsibility of predicting future conflicts on the media is a dangerous and fruitless endeavor. Even in today's flawed world of constant conflict in various regions around the world it is difficult at best for the media to responsibly report what is happening let alone predict future conflicts. Today was struggle with ensuring the media does not enflame existing conflicts for their own material gains. Put in a position in which the media is responsible for predicting future conflicts is a recipe for disaster.

Media outlets today are desperate for the next big breaking headline. Between obnoxious and overly intrusive paparazzi hounding unfortunate celebrities to dangerous ends to well established and highly respected journalist reporting on poorly researched and questionably sourced stories there is an ever growing decline in the quality of simply reporting events today. Despite the army of "subject matter experts" that are marched before the cameras during a crisis to offer commentary and insight, all too often they are so far off base as to be concocting fiction on the spot. Clearly this should deem the media unqualified to predict anything if they cannot simply report what is actually occurring in real time.

Given the man power, technical capabilities and international cooperation that the United States government brings to the table when trying to predict world events it is still exceptionally rare that the conflict plays out as predicted. Clearly the United States government has more resources, more experience and is more qualified to predict future conflicts than any media source would be, and even the government can't get it right. The motivation behind the media efforts and the government efforts are all too often diametrically opposed with the media siding on commercially selfish motivations rather than national security motivations, further disqualifying them from the responsibility of predicting future conflicts.

At a very fundamental level the media will quickly change from reporting the news to being the news should they assume the mantle of responsibility for predicting conflicts. There is a very small step from not only predicting conflicts but influencing them and causing them. Nothing beats a good news story than a good international conflict. The more conflict to report the more money the media moguls can siphon from an unsuspecting public eager to sop up the sordid details of body counts, coup attempts and nation building.

Until the media has perfected the art of reporting the current news they hardly seem ready to take on any additional responsibility. Less focus on entertainment and more focus on enlightenment might garner the respect needed for the media to the move beyond the relatively simple task assigned to them of reporting on today's events. Once this minor feat has been accomplished focuse should be placed more on avoiding or resolving conflicts rather than predicting future ones.

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