by Sina

Created on: January 07, 2009

"Should the US establish diplomatic relations with Iran?"

My answer to this question is yes but with certain caveats.

United States and Iranian relations have teetered from nonexistent to lukewarm since the ousting of the Shah during the Iranian revolution and the ascension of ayatollah rule. It would seem that both sides really don't have an over arching strategy for dealing successfully with the other one. The United States' policy for Iran for the last 20 years or so has been to either approach them using sharpened rhetoric, sanctions, and the threat of strikes or softened rhetoric, less sanctions, and the military option less apparent or off the table entirely. The United States' approach can be broadly categorized as the carrot and stick approach. That is when Iran is "behaving" they get the carrots of the latter approach. If the Iranians choose to not behave, then they get the former approach. The Iranians on the other hand can't figure out if they love or hate the United States. The Iranians love/hate cycle often correlates with whether the United States is using the carrot or stick. Furthermore I would posit that both parties are caught in this carrot/stick love/hate cycle, each feeding the cycle with no or limited progress. That is until the cycle was broken.

The event that has fundamentally changed the nature of Iranian-American relationship is the Iraq War and it's consequences. By invading Iraq, overthrowing the Sunni-Baathist led government, and creating a democracy in its wake. By creating a democracy the United States has empowered the Shiite majority and powered down the Sunni minority. The Shiite majority has always had connections to Iran via a varied group of political parties and religious leaders. What is important from the Iranian perspective is that the balance of power vis-a-vis Iraq has changed. The Iranians have gone from being contained by Saddamn's bellicose Iraq to having a strongly sympathetic ear in Baghdad.

The United States on the other hand, as the Iraq War winds down, has found its options and ability to leverage the Iraqis increasingly limited. With the signing of the status of forces agreement and the Iraqi government accelerating its ability to exert sovereignty, the United States is being pushed to the side. But don't be fooled the United States still maintains a very significant military presence in the country and can, if provoked, defend itself.

So the question becomes, what happens when you have one state that is losing

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