by Jimmy Nightingale

Created on: January 06, 2009   Last Updated: December 07, 2009

The one indisputable fact is that global warming is real. The inescapable facts that follow on from this is that we are to blame and that it is going to become more obvious and lead to catastrophic impacts if we don't do something to curb our current reliance on fossil fuels for energy.

There is a lot of media coverage trying to cloud the debate with a lot of specious arguments - that it is all part of the natural cycle, it's the sun, it's been cooling since 1998, it's all to do with the urban heat island effect and so on and so forth. These are common arguments and easily rebutted (see

here and here. Sadly, the authors of these pieces invariably tend to be unqualified people or scientists (or former scientists) acting outside their area of expertise with no per reviewed research history in the field. They also often tend to be very vocal people with questionable links to oil, coal or other interests that depend on the status quo. There is no doubt that it a complex and technical area of science, however that is no excuse for ignorance and inaction and anyone who wants to come up to speed on the subject can do so here.

The scientific community has largely moved on from the question of attribution (who or what is responsible for the warming) to one of mitigation (what can be done about it or to avoid it). But what is the problem? Someone living in Minneapolis, Winnipeg or Omsk, just about anyone who has to endure a freezing northern winter would probably feel justified thinking that a bit of warmth would be a good thing. It is mean temperatures of the globe that we are talking about and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that the world's climate will warm by between 1.1 and 6.4 degrees Centigrade by 2090 (the variation is due to the different emissions scenarios - sadly we are tracking along the more pessimistic and hence dangerous of those). The global mean temperature is sitting on 14.4 degrees Centigrade in 2008 (preliminary data) and those temperature increases are difficult to grasp.

What does it mean? Author Mark Lynas was probably the first to attempt to pull together the various pieces of research to help the person on the street to understand what the Earth is going to be like in the future if these temperature increases occur. His book, "Six Degrees", is split into six chapters outlining what the world is likely to be like with 1 through to 6 degrees Centigrade of warming. It is a very though-provoking book and the author has been careful to only outline from the peer-reviewed scientific literature what will happen in the various scenarios. The National Geographic Channel has developed a one hour special (next screening on 13th January - details here and it is well worth viewing. If you do watch it, take particular note of the 2 and 3 degree scenarios - 2 degrees is the minimum unavoidable warming and 3 degrees is the most likely scenario.

These are the cold hard facts of the matter. But it isn't too late to do something to avoid the more catastrophic scenarios. The key in my view is a combination of improving energy efficiency, having better planning laws and building designs, introducing a carbon tax with a 100 percent dividend (something our politicians are avoiding, in favour of the more commercially attractive cap and trade option), and pumping money into research and development (which a carbon tax will promote). Much of the technology already exists, it is just economies of scale and political will that is holding up the process of change. If you look at the future of the Earth with the 4 degree plus scenarios, it is a change that needs to be made and needs to occur soon.

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