by Paul Schingle

Created on: December 16, 2008

Interesting question which is difficult to give a simple "yes or no" answer to. By and large, I'd say it is not the responsibility of the news media to predict future conflicts. This, however, is unlikely to stop them from continuing to try. The thing is, even if the news media reports projections/predictions, it doesn't necessarily do anybody any good. For the last several months, the media, as a whole, has been telling us of the "impending" recession. Did the forewarning from the media stall the gloomy economic event? Of course not. Do we feel better, since we were forewarned? I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that those who've been laid off since this has become a news story don't feel better. In the end, the news media are going to report whatever they think is going to sell. For the good or the bad, that's how it's always going to be.

Now, to be fair to the media, sometimes they have to report projections. Polls before elections would be an example. Now, I would take a stand that the closer the election appears to be, the more important it is to report these findings in the polls-if for no other reason than to get the people to get out and vote. If cnadidate X is at 48% in the polls and candidate Y is at 47%, this is a statistical tie. If this is reported and you support candidate Y, you know how important it becomes to vote and try to swing the election. Conversely, if the election appears to be a blowout and this is reported in the polls, it can actually cause apathy and low voter turnout. Worse yet, it can end up becoming some sort of self-fulfilling prophesy.

Another good time to have predictions and projections in the news is the weather report. I really don't need the weather man to tell me what happened outside today. But, it would be nice to know how I should dress tomorrow to remain comfortable. (Of course, weather predictions are kind of a crapshoot, anyway, so...).

So, the question remains, is it the media's responsibility to go beyond what's happening today in order to predict future conflicts? For the most poart, I'd say it isn't their responsibility, but no one is going to be able to stop them from trying. If all these projections or predictions are bothersome to you, I would advise you to take them with a grain of salt. Like the weather, predictions on the political and economic fronts are still pretty much just guesswork. If the predictions you hear aren't pleasing to you-just change the channel.

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