by Heath Breneman

Created on: December 07, 2008

Crystal ball-gazing is notorious for its pitfalls, not its successes. The coming century unquestionably holds as many surprises as the previous century. The condition of various players can hint at potential strengths or disadvantages, but the fate of nations can ride on the fortunes of a single person, an unforeseen calamity, a nearly invisible broad trend, or unplumbable chance. Presently, there are several powers best positioned to assert their influence globally and become (or remain) recognized as principal superpowers in the coming one hundred years.

The aftermath of the Cold War left the US as the sole hyperpower but the two decades since the end of Soviet influence on the world stage have altered the special conditions of US dominance. Perhaps most critically, the Sept 11, 2001 attack and the consequent military adventures in South Asia not only deeply affected global opinion, but also compromised its ability to project military, diplomatic and economic power. Further, the events of the past seven years intensified the ongoing debate in the US regarding its role in the world and the best way to proceed. Other fundamental barriers facing the US include a dilapidated infrastructure, massive foreign debt, a mediocre and poorly funded national education system, and escalating environmental effects of global warming. Though in most respects the US remains the most powerful nation on the planet, there are sufficient difficulties in the near term to retard America's continued dominance.

With the weakening of American power, possible alternative nations have emerged, especially the BRIC nationsBrazil, Russia, India and China. Russia has many of the advantages of its Soviet era along with a renewed energy sector boosting its economic self-sufficiency and a resurgent expansionist nationalism. Yet Russia faces the animosity of several of her neighbors, multiple separatist movements, and widespread corruption. Brazil, India and China likewise share Russia's advantages of population, resources, relative political stability, and technological and economic advancement, but face increasingly severe environmental challenges, widespread corruption, and a wide range of sociopolitical problems and occasionally violent political unrest. Three of the four (Russia, China and India) have the capacity to operate active space programs, which testifies to a substantial and fairly sophisticated industrial and scientific base, yet the same three also share a continent: direct competition

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