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As I watched American Idol last night, I couldn't help thinking that this show has a five and a half year life span left. (This fact comes from an article entitled Idol' empire conquers new multimedia worlds.) I'm not sure how this life span was calculated, but it's in CKX Inc's SEC filings. What it means to me is that within a few years, American Idol will have showcased the best and brightest singers of this generation, and Simon Fuller's company-19 Entertainment, which is involved in managing singers' careers and the recording music-will represent many of them. Imagine that. After a decade of American Idol, 19 Entertainment's stables will be full of singers. What a cash cow.

Since the youngest contestants are sixteen, this means that each year the people trying out are previous years' rejects, sixteen year olds who were too young to try out before, and those who finally found the guts to go before an audience of millions and sing their hearts out. The last two categories are not mutually exclusive.

In fact, there was this one sixteen year old who could juggle better than he could sing, and I couldn't help wondering why he even went on American Idol. He must have known that Simon Cowell wouldn't sugarcoat the truth. Having the guts to try out when you have no singing talent can result in five minutes of fame, so why complain? I think that there were some contestants who realized they had no talent, but they just wanted to be on TV, and they did what they could to get caught on camera. Remember William Hung.

How can Simon be the bad guy when he just speaks the truth? Shouldn't family and friends have gotten into the act and stopped the really bad singers from even auditioning?

Anyone who has ever seen this show knows that Simon doesn't pull his punches, Randy Jackson gives constructive criticism, and Paula Abdul acts sympathetic. The three judges have different styles, but it doesn't mean that their judgements differ greatly when viewing the worst of American Idol. Just look at their body language. Covering up ears, laughing, looking away, and wincng aren't that different from saying, "You can't sing."

Sadly, many of the contestants in the first episode made me cringe, too. The show subjected not only the judges, including guest judge Jewel, to excruciatingly bad singers, but also the television audience. I just can't help wonder how many out of tune voices weren't televised. It makes me feel sorry for the judges. Their poor ears. But what do you expect when the best of the confident non-underage singers tried out and passed American Idol auditions in past seasons?

Out of all last night's singers, I think the curly-haired ninteen-year-old who knew how to control her voice has the best chances. But the spunky "surviver," the girl with a Spanish accent, may surprise us.

Round 1 auditions weed out the talented from the talentless. But I wonder who'll pass the future rounds to be Season 6 American Idol. I can't help but notice that the past winners always had a story. America seems to love the rags to riches singers the best. Talent plus looks plus a story seems to equal victory on this show.

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